When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2024 · Baltimore Ravens · pick one to list those games
74% went over. Of the 14 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 7% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 26% of games.
All 19 games
2024 · Baltimore Ravens · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 14314052 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -9.5 | 44.5 | 7214242 | U | BAL Q2 | 14–28 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 10193333 | U | BAL Q1 | 31–2 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BAL -7.5 | 45.5 | 7274151 | Q4 | BAL Q4 | 17–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
BAL -16.5 | 43.5 | 7283549 | Q4 | BAL Q3 | 35–14 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BAL -3.5 | 51.5 | 9262643 | U | PHI Q2 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BAL -2.5 | 50.5 | 7273353 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
30–23 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BAL -3.5 | 49.5 | 3162534 | U | PIT Q1 | 16–18 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BAL -5.5 | 52.5 | 7213569 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–35 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BAL -8.5 | 46.5 | 7344851 | Q3 | BAL Q2 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BAL -7.5 | 44.5 | 3163753 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over |
24–29 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BAL -4.5 | 50.5 | 10274472 | Q4 | BAL Q2 | 41–31 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BAL -7.5 | 50.5 | 6274053 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–30 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 4 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 10243845 | U | BAL Q1 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BAL -1.5 | 47.5 | 17273453 | Q4 | BAL Q1 Late over |
28–25 |
2024 · Week 2 |
BAL -8.5 | 42.5 | 3152949 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–23 |
2024 · Week 1 |
KC -2.5 | 45.5 | 14233047 | Q4 | KC Q2 Late over |
20–27 |
BAL
BUF
PIT
CLE
HOU
NYG
PHI
LAC
CIN
DEN
TB
WSH
DAL
LV
KCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 8
Q2 26% 5
Q3 5% 1
Q4 21% 4
OT 5% 1
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 79% of 19 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 84% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.