The Pit · at New Mexico
#268UTUUtah Tech
@
#82UNMNew Mexico
LineUNM -21.5moved 1 toward UNM
Total156.5up 1 from 155.5
Season records: Utah Tech and New Mexico
UTUThis seasonUNM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 86–67 · win probability UNM 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
UNM -21.5
moved 1 toward UNM
Total
156.5
model 153.4 · Under by 3
Model edge
UTU by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
98% UTU
98% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

UTU 0, UNM 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNMBig
UNM offense vs UTU defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 295th, on the model’s ratings
UNMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTU 28.1%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: UTU 65.5%, UNM 72.3%
UNMBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTU 17.8%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: UTU 16.8%, UNM 19.0%
UNMBig
UTU offense vs UNM defense
Offense 251st of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UTU has played the 210th-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTU 30.6, UNM 35.8. Allowed: UTU 33.0, UNM 33.3
UNMSmall
Home court
UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, UTU 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTU 53.3 and allows 50.9; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTU 24%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: UTU 3, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
UTU hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 38.2% and 41.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UTU plays 69.9 a game (124th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward UNM
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UTU +1600 · UNM -4750
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened UNM -20.5 · now UNM -21.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNM -19.5
Opened 155.5 · now 156.5 · moved 1 upmodel 153.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
UTU +21.5SpreadUNM -21.5
Bets
Money
Over 156.5TotalUnder 156.5
Bets
Money
UTUWinnerUNM
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UTUUNMOverUnderUTUUNM
BetMGMMGM-21.5-110+21.5-110156.5-110156.5-110+1500-5000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-21-105+21-115156.5-110156.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-21.5-114+21.5-112156.5-114156.5-112——
BetUSBetUS-21-105+21-115157.5-110157.5-110——
BovadaBovada-21.5-115+21.5-105156.5-105156.5-115——
DraftKingsDK-21.5-115+21.5-105156.5-108156.5-112+1700-4500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-21-101+21-111156.5-108156.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadUNM -21.5UNM -19.4UTU +2.1
Total156.5153.4Under 3.1
Projected score—UTU 67 · UNM 86.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadUNM -11.4—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreUTU 30.2 · UNM 41.6—

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Tech 0, New Mexico 4, even 1
Utah TechBetterNew Mexico
G R. Sunderland TR4.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 4
UNMBig
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G A. Dupre TR3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 1
UNMBig
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
G M. Brown TR3 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
UNMBig
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
F E. Potter17.1 pts · 7.9 reb · 2 ast Score 94
Even
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
F S. Ariyibi2.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
UNMBig
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
Utah TechBetterNew Mexico
UTU offense251st of 366 · -7.6
UNMBig
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
UTU defense295th of 366 · -7.4
UNMBig
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Backcourt-8.4 · 3 players
UNMBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
UTUSmall
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.3 · 3 players
UNMSmall
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUTU betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Utah Tech
Guards
R. Sunderland27 min · TRA. Dupre16 min · TRM. Brown14 min · TRB. Harker3 minP. Vandermyde1 minP. RagkosNew
Forwards
E. Potter32 minS. Ariyibi10 minD. Grant2 minJ. ClarkNew
Centers
K. LemkeNew
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTUUNM
Scoring
74.7 #171Points per game80.8 #52
1.08 #193Points per possession1.14 #70
69.9 #124Pace (possessions)70.7 #87
Shooting
53.3 #90Effective FG%53.5 #82
35.0 #1133-point %35.6 #83
38.2 #2073-point attempt rate41.9 #136
30.6 #290Free throw rate35.8 #160
Possessions
17.8 #256Turnover rate14.9 #59
28.1 #261Offensive rebound rate30.6 #176
14.4 #121Assists per game14.8 #104
Defense
77.0 #243Points allowed71.6 #96
1.09 #211Points allowed per possession1.01 #36
50.9 #151Opponent effective FG%49.5 #84
30.7 #29Opponent 3-point %30.5 #20
16.8 #166Turnovers forced19.0 #50
65.5 #326Defensive rebound rate72.3 #57
6.9 #135Steals per game7.9 #43
3.0 #216Blocks per game2.7 #274

Utah Tech

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs CA Baptist72–86
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn80–74
  • Lvs Utah Valley101–104
  • L@ Southern Utah67–81
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn85–81

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.