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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Navy @ Rider

Alumni Gymnasium (Rider) · at Rider
#199NAVYNavy
@
#347RIDRider
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAVYThis seasonRID
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NAVY 73–67 · win probability NAVY 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 139.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

NAVY 8, RID 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NAVYBig
Three-pointers
NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%; RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%. Threes are 33.1% and 27.5% of their shots
NAVYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3; RID 42.8 and allows 55.2
NAVYBig
RID offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings
NAVYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAVY 38.8, RID 30.1. Allowed: NAVY 26.0, RID 32.5
NAVYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAVY 31.9%, RID 32.6%. Defensive: NAVY 72.6%, RID 67.2%
Context
Schedule so far
NAVY has played the 311th-hardest schedule, RID the 201st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NAVYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAVY 16.8%, RID 16.9%. Forced: NAVY 18.3%, RID 15.3%
NAVYSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAVY 46%, RID 0%. Transfers in: NAVY 0, RID 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
RIDSmall
Home court
RID at home. This season: RID 0-0 at home, NAVY 0-0 away
NAVYSmall
NAVY offense vs RID defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: NAVY plays 66.0 a game (316th fastest), RID 65.7 (323rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NAVY -6.9—
Total—139.9—
Projected score—NAVY 73.4 · RID 66.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNAVY -4.2—
1H total65.5—
1H projected scoreNAVY 34.9 · RID 30.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Navy 0, Rider 0, even 5
NavyBetterRider
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
Even
G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
Even
G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
No call
G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
NavyBetterRider
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
Even
RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2
NAVY defense146th of 366 · -3.1
NAVYBig
RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
Even
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestNAVY betterRID betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
Rider
Guards
M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew
Forwards
H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew
Centers
S. Avegah SemeyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAVYRID
Scoring
74.1 #194Points per game62.6 #359
1.12 #97Points per possession0.95 #355
66.0 #316Pace (possessions)65.7 #323
Shooting
53.1 #100Effective FG%42.8 #365
35.9 #643-point %27.6 #365
33.1 #3143-point attempt rate27.5 #361
38.8 #82Free throw rate30.1 #307
Possessions
16.8 #190Turnover rate16.9 #197
31.9 #126Offensive rebound rate32.6 #101
15.8 #52Assists per game10.1 #356
Defense
65.6 #10Points allowed76.8 #236
1.00 #23Points allowed per possession1.17 #341
48.3 #42Opponent effective FG%55.2 #335
30.0 #7Opponent 3-point %38.0 #356
18.3 #84Turnovers forced15.3 #266
72.6 #49Defensive rebound rate67.2 #294
7.5 #84Steals per game5.9 #247
3.3 #185Blocks per game3.2 #188
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Siena61–76
  • L@ Iona58–80
  • Wvs Niagara67–62
  • Lvs Canisius66–72
  • L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.