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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Detroit Mercy @ Purdue FW

Memorial Coliseum (IN) · at Purdue FW · Conference game
#277DETMDetroit Mercy
@
#249PFWPurdue FW
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETMThis seasonPFW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PFW 78–74 · win probability PFW 61%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PFW has more of the edges

DETM 3, PFW 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DETMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DETM 33.3%, PFW 22.9%. Defensive: DETM 69.2%, PFW 65.5%
PFWBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DETM 16.0%, PFW 14.5%. Forced: DETM 14.4%, PFW 19.1%
DETMBig
Three-pointers
DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%; PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%. Threes are 30.7% and 45.4% of their shots
PFWSmall
PFW offense vs DETM defense
Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 310th, on the model’s ratings
PFWSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DETM 32.6, PFW 30.6. Allowed: DETM 37.6, PFW 28.6
DETMSmall
DETM offense vs PFW defense
Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings
PFWSmall
Home court
PFW at home. This season: PFW 0-0 at home, DETM 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DETM 49%, PFW 29%. Transfers in: DETM 0, PFW 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: DETM plays 69.7 a game (132nd fastest), PFW 69.0 (179th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2; PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1
Context
Schedule so far
DETM has played the 208th-hardest schedule, PFW the 209th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PFW -3.3—
Total—151.9—
Projected score—DETM 74.3 · PFW 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPFW -1.8—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreDETM 34.6 · PFW 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Detroit Mercy has the better starters

Position by position: Detroit Mercy 1, Purdue FW 0, even 4
Detroit MercyBetterPurdue FW
G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54
Even
G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 68
G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 16
G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9
Even
G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28
DETMSmall
G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9
C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 63
Detroit MercyBetterPurdue FW
DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2
DETMSmall
PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3
DETM defense310th of 366 · -8.1
PFWSmall
PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
DETMBig
Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
PFWSmall
Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestDETM betterPFW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Detroit Mercy
Guards
T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew
Forwards
L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew
Centers
X. Istomin-Monroe8 min
Purdue FW
Guards
D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew
Forwards
A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETMPFW
Scoring
76.3 #135Points per game74.2 #189
1.09 #153Points per possession1.07 #204
69.7 #132Pace (possessions)69.0 #179
Shooting
49.5 #267Effective FG%52.6 #125
35.1 #1083-point %34.2 #163
30.7 #3433-point attempt rate45.4 #60
32.6 #247Free throw rate30.6 #292
Possessions
16.0 #138Turnover rate14.5 #43
33.3 #81Offensive rebound rate22.9 #351
13.1 #208Assists per game13.1 #207
Defense
78.7 #285Points allowed78.8 #286
1.13 #290Points allowed per possession1.14 #311
52.2 #223Opponent effective FG%56.1 #345
33.3 #140Opponent 3-point %37.9 #355
14.4 #324Turnovers forced19.1 #44
69.2 #193Defensive rebound rate65.5 #327
5.8 #264Steals per game7.9 #42
3.3 #182Blocks per game3.0 #224
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St63–66
  • Wvs Robert Morris70–64
  • Wvs Milwaukee84–63
  • W@ Oakland95–89
  • L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.

Purdue FW

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Green Bay56–64
  • W@ IU Indy87–81
  • Lvs Wright St70–74
  • W@ Cleveland St92–86
  • L@ N Kentucky71–87

A week or more of rest.