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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

CA Baptist vs LMU

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#203CBUCA Baptist
vs
#121LMULMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CBUThis seasonLMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 73–69 · win probability LMU 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CBU 2, LMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CBUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, LMU 26.7%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, LMU 68.0%
LMUBig
CBU offense vs LMU defense
Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings
CBUSmall
Three-pointers
CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 32.0% and 40.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, LMU the 131st. A record against a soft schedule means less
LMUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9
Even
LMU offense vs CBU defense
Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), LMU 68.9 (185th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, LMU 17.4%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, LMU 16.6%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, LMU 22%. Transfers in: CBU 2, LMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, LMU 31.1. Allowed: CBU 36.6, LMU 32.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LMU -4.6—
Total—141.7—
Projected score—CBU 68.5 · LMU 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLMU -2.6—
1H total66.3—
1H projected scoreCBU 31.9 · LMU 34.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

LMU has the better starters

Position by position: CA Baptist 0, LMU 1, even 4
CA BaptistBetterLMU
G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
Even
G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72
G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
LMUBig
G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48
CA BaptistBetterLMU
CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5
LMUBig
LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0
CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0
Even
LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
LMUSmall
Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
CBUSmall
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCBU betterLMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
CA Baptist
Guards
E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew
Forwards
R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew
Centers
M. KovacNew
LMU
Guards
Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min
Forwards
C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CBULMU
Scoring
72.7 #230Points per game72.2 #236
1.07 #209Points per possession1.04 #263
68.3 #217Pace (possessions)68.9 #185
Shooting
48.3 #308Effective FG%51.9 #152
33.4 #2003-point %34.8 #130
32.0 #3303-point attempt rate40.4 #162
35.9 #154Free throw rate31.1 #280
Possessions
18.0 #270Turnover rate17.4 #234
37.5 #13Offensive rebound rate26.7 #307
10.2 #355Assists per game12.7 #234
Defense
67.6 #28Points allowed72.7 #122
0.99 #18Points allowed per possession1.06 #103
46.3 #16Opponent effective FG%48.9 #60
29.5 #5Opponent 3-point %34.6 #225
16.9 #159Turnovers forced16.6 #178
72.8 #41Defensive rebound rate68.0 #258
5.5 #296Steals per game6.0 #236
2.9 #253Blocks per game3.9 #81
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kansas60–68
  • Wvs Utah Valley63–61
  • Wvs Utah Tech86–72
  • W@ Southern Utah82–75
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Diego62–66
  • Lvs Seattle U66–71
  • Wvs Washington St67–66
  • W@ San Diego77–65
  • L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.