Mitchell Center · at South Alabama
Closing line
USA -3.5✓ USA covered by 8.5
USA -3.5✓ USA covered by 8.5Closing total145.5Over by 4.5
 BUF | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | Record | 14-7 |
| 13-8 | ATS | 10-11 |
| 12-9 | O/U | 10-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 72–75 USA · ✓ USA (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 24 | 45 | 69 |
| USA | 40 | 41 | 81 |
1st half: BUF 24, USA 40 (USA by 16). The model had USA by 1.7 and a total of 69.2 (actual 64).
Team stats
| BUF | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-63 38% | Field goals | 28-53 53% |
| 17-46 37% | 3-pointers | 10-21 48% |
| 4-6 67% | Free throws | 15-24 63% |
| 34 10 off | Rebounds | 36 5 off |
| 17 | Assists | 14 |
| 8 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 37 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 8-21 | 6-18 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 35 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 9-21 | 8-17 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 34 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 33 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Tim Oboh F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Kyle Jones G | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Matas Buteliauskas F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Daniel Freitag, Aleksa Vlajic, Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Mikhali Pocknett
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 36 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-7 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 33 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-6 |
| Randy Brady F | 31 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 26 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Chaze Harris G | 25 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 6-10 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| John Broom G | 18 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 18 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Stephen Williams F | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Brian Hawthorne G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Maxwell Land G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Samuel Shoptaw, Desmond Williams, Peyton Law
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSA -3.5
ModelUSA -3.1
Model edgeBUF +0.4
L USA covered
Total
Market145.5
Model147.7
Model edgeOver 2.2
W Over
Projected score
BUF 72.3 · USA 75.4
BUF 69 · USA 81
Win probability
USA 61%
1st half
Spread
USA -1.7
USA -16.0
Total
69.2
64 points
Projected score
BUF 33.7 · USA 35.4
BUF 24 · USA 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSA -1.5
2 → USA
CloseUSA -3.5
2 pts toward USA
Total
Open143.5
▲ 2
Close145.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +145 · USA -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USA -1.5 · closed USA -3.5 · moved 2 toward USAmodel USA -3
model USA -3
Opened 143.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 upmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| USA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
BUF 0–1 USAUSA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BUF 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023-24 | USA 70 @ BUF 56 | BUF +1.5 | USA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
21 games played
Straight up
12-9
57% wins
Against the spread
13-8
62% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-9
57% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs MASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
covered 13didn’t cover 8avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
over 12under 9avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
21 games played
Straight up
14-7
67% wins
Against the spread
10-11
48% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-11
48% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @ TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @ TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vs GASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vs ARST | W 91-87 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | vsUL | L 56-59 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 129.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 22 | @ JMU | W 90-83 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 29 | vs CCU | W 53-48 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 101 |
| Jan 31 | vs GAST | W 69-67 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 4 | @ APP | L 57-65 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 131.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+8.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−12.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+11.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
+1.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−3.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−2.5
covered 10didn’t cover 11avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+23.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−14.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+34.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
−38.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−4.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−9.5
over 10under 11avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
12-9 overall · 4-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami OH71–73
- Lvs Ohio83–95
- W@ Bowling Green89–78
- Lvs UMass67–68
- Lvs Akron63–82
4 days since their last game.
South Alabama
14-7 overall · 7-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ App State57–65
- Wvs Georgia St69–67
- Wvs Coastal53–48
- W@ James Madison90–83
- Lvs Louisiana56–59
3 days since their last game.