Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -15.5✓ NU covered by 3.5
MICH -15.5✓ NU covered by 3.5Closing total153.5Over by 8.5
| MICH | This season | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 22-1 | Record | 10-14 |
| 12-11 | ATS | 11-13 |
| 9-14 | O/U | 12-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 86–70 NU · ✓ MICH (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 35 | 52 | 87 |
| NU | 44 | 31 | 75 |
1st half: MICH 35, NU 44 (NU by 9). The model had MICH by 9.7 and a total of 72.8 (actual 79).
Team stats
| MICH | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-69 43% | Field goals | 28-70 40% |
| 8-29 28% | 3-pointers | 6-25 24% |
| 19-27 70% | Free throws | 13-14 93% |
| 47 17 off | Rebounds | 30 12 off |
| 21 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 8 | Blocks | 7 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 37 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-4 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 29 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Aday Mara C | 27 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 22 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| L.J. Cason G | 25 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Trey McKenney G | 25 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-7 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Will Tschetter F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May, Howard Eisley Jr., Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 39 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 5-22 | 1-7 |
| Jake West G | 35 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3-10 | 0-4 |
| Jayden Reid G | 28 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Tre Singleton F | 25 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Arrinten Page F | 26 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-5 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Justin Mullins, Cade Bennerman, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham, Max Green, Phoenix Gill
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -15.5
ModelMICH -16.1
Model edgeMICH +0.6
L NU covered
Total
Market153.5
Model155.7
Model edgeOver 2.2
W Over
Projected score
MICH 85.9 · NU 69.8
MICH 87 · NU 75
Win probability
MICH 92%
1st half
Spread
MICH -9.7
NU -9.0
Total
72.8
79 points
Projected score
MICH 41.3 · NU 31.5
MICH 35 · NU 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -14.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -15.5
1 pt toward MICH
Total
Open152.5
▲ 1
Close153.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -1650 · NU +950
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -14.5 · closed MICH -15.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -16
model MICH -16
Opened 152.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 1 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| NU | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MICH 4–1 NUMICH leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MICH 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2024-25 | NU 76 @ MICH 80 | MICH -9.5 | NU W |
| Feb 22, 2023-24 | MICH 62 @ NU 76 | NU -12.5 | NU W |
| Feb 2, 2022-23 | MICH 68 @ NU 51 | NU -4.5 | MICH W |
| Jan 15, 2022-23 | NU 78 @ MICH 85 | MICH -4.5 | MICH W |
| Jan 26, 2021-22 | NU 70 @ MICH 72 | MICH -8 | NU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
23 games played
Straight up
22-1
96% wins
Against the spread
12-11
52% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-14
39% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
covered 12didn’t cover 11avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
over 9under 14avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northwestern
24 games played
Straight up
10-14
42% wins
Against the spread
11-13
46% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vsOSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vs ILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsNEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @USC | W 74-68 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @ UCLA | L 64-71 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | vsPSU | W 94-73 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsWASH | L 62-76 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ILL | L 44-84 | +16.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 8 | @ IOWA | L 70-76 | +10.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
+12.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
+0.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+13.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−15.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−23.5
8
@IOWA
IOWAL 70-76
+4.5
covered 11didn’t cover 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
−7.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
−8.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+18.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−8.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−21.5
8
@IOWA
IOWAL 70-76
+6.5
over 12under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
22-1 overall · 12-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ohio State82–61
- Wvs Penn State110–69
- W@ Michigan St83–71
- Wvs Nebraska75–72
- Wvs Ohio State74–62
3 days since their last game.
Northwestern
10-14 overall · 2-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Iowa70–76
- L@ Illinois44–84
- Lvs Washington62–76
- Wvs Penn State94–73
- L@ UCLA64–71
3 days since their last game.