State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -16.5✓ ILL covered by 23.5
ILL -16.5✓ ILL covered by 23.5Closing total149.5Under by 21.5
 NU | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 19-3 |
| 10-12 | ATS | 14-8 |
| 11-11 | O/U | 8-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NU 69–83 ILL · ✓ ILL (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 19 | 25 | 44 |
| ILL | 47 | 37 | 84 |
1st half: NU 19, ILL 47 (ILL by 28). The model had ILL by 8.2 and a total of 71.1 (actual 66).
Team stats
| NU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-65 29% | Field goals | 28-58 48% |
| 4-25 16% | 3-pointers | 17-38 45% |
| 2-4 50% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 23 6 off | Rebounds | 50 11 off |
| 10 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 1 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-2 |
| Jake West G | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Reid G | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3-10 | 1-5 |
| Tre Singleton F | 22 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 21 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Arrinten Page F | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Phoenix Gill G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Justin Mullins G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Max Green G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| K.J. Windham G | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Gus Hurlburt, Cade Bennerman, Blake Smith
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 30 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Jake Davis F | 28 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-11 | 3-10 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 28 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| David Mirkovic F | 27 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 4-6 | 4-5 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 24 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 26 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-6 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Brandon Lee G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| AJ Redd G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Jason Jakstys, Kylan Boswell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -16.5
ModelILL -14.0
Model edgeNU +2.5
L ILL covered
Total
Market149.5
Model152.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
L Under
Projected score
NU 69 · ILL 83
NU 44 · ILL 84
Win probability
ILL 89%
1st half
Spread
ILL -8.2
ILL -28.0
Total
71.1
66 points
Projected score
NU 31.4 · ILL 39.7
NU 19 · ILL 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -15.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -16.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open151.5
▼ 2
Close149.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
NU +1200 · ILL -2400
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -15.5 · closed ILL -16.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -14
model ILL -14
Opened 151.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 2 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| ILL | 10-0 100% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NU 3–6 ILLILL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 2 meetings · NU 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | ILL 79 @ NU 68 | NU +9.5 | ILL W |
| Jan 26, 2024-25 | NU 74 @ ILL 83 | ILL -7.5 | ILL W |
| Dec 6, 2024-25 | ILL 66 @ NU 70 | NU +3.5 | NU W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | ILL 91 @ NU 96 | NU +4.5 | NU W |
| Jan 2, 2023-24 | NU 66 @ ILL 96 | ILL -5.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northwestern
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
10-12
45% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-11
50% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs OSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @ MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vsILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ USC | W 74-68 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @ UCLA | L 64-71 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | vs PSU | W 94-73 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vs WASH | L 62-76 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
+12.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
+0.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+13.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−15.5
covered 10didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
−7.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
−8.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+18.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−8.5
over 11under 11avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
22 games played
Straight up
19-3
86% wins
Against the spread
14-8
64% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-14
36% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsJKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vsWASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
covered 14didn’t cover 8avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
over 8under 14avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northwestern
10-12 overall · 2-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Washington62–76
- Wvs Penn State94–73
- L@ UCLA64–71
- W@ USC74–68
- Lvs Nebraska58–77
4 days since their last game.
Illinois
19-3 overall · 10-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Nebraska78–69
- Wvs Washington75–66
- W@ Purdue88–82
- Wvs Maryland89–70
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
3 days since their last game.