Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game
Closing line
NEB -4.5✓ NEB covered by 14.5
NEB -4.5✓ NEB covered by 14.5Closing total149.5Under by 14.5
| NEB | This season | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 17-0 | Record | 8-9 |
| 10-7 | ATS | 7-10 |
| 6-11 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NEB 76–72 NU · ✓ NEB (64%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 34 | 43 | 77 |
| NU | 29 | 29 | 58 |
1st half: NEB 34, NU 29 (NEB by 5). The model had NEB by 2.5 and a total of 69.4 (actual 63).
Team stats
| NEB | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-53 51% | Field goals | 23-54 43% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 5-14 36% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 7-10 70% |
| 28 6 off | Rebounds | 30 9 off |
| 18 | Assists | 15 |
| 7 | Steals | 1 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| NEB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce Sandfort F | 36 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 7-13 | 5-10 |
| Sam Hoiberg G | 36 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel C | 28 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jamarques Lawrence G | 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Rienk Mast F | 20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braden Frager F | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 8-14 | 2-7 |
| Cale Jacobsen G | 22 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jared Garcia F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Leo Curtis F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kendall Blue G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ugnius Jarusevicius, Connor Essegian, Justin Bolis, Will Cooper, Henry Burt, Quentin Rhymes
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 38 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 9-20 | 2-3 |
| Tre Singleton F | 36 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-2 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 31 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Jake West G | 27 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Arrinten Page F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Reid G | 26 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Max Green G | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Phoenix Gill G | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Justin Mullins, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNEB -4.5
ModelNEB -4.0
Model edgeNU +0.5
L NEB covered
Total
Market149.5
Model148.2
Model edgeUnder 1.3
W Under
Projected score
NEB 76.1 · NU 72.1
NEB 77 · NU 58
Win probability
NEB 64%
1st half
Spread
NEB -2.5
NEB -5.0
Total
69.4
63 points
Projected score
NEB 36 · NU 33.5
NEB 34 · NU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -5.5
1 → NU
CloseNEB -4.5
1 pt toward NU
Total
Open148.5
▲ 1
Close149.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NEB -205 · NU +170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -5.5 · closed NEB -4.5 · moved 1 toward NUmodel NEB -4
model NEB -4
Opened 148.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 1 upmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| NU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
NEB 2–5 NUNU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · NEB 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024-25 | NEB 68 @ NU 64 | NU +1.5 | NEB W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | NEB 68 @ NU 80 | NU -6.5 | NU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | NU 69 @ NEB 75 | NEB -3.5 | NEB W |
| Jan 25, 2022-23 | NU 78 @ NEB 63 | NEB +2.5 | NU W |
| Mar 9, 2021-22 | NEB 69 vs NU 71 | NU -4 | NEB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Nebraska
17 games played
Straight up
17-0
100% wins
Against the spread
10-7
59% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-11
35% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WGA | W 86-53 | -24.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 8 | vs FIU | W 96-66 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMES | W 69-50 | -35.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | vs OU | W 105-99 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs UNM | W 84-72 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs KSU | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs WIN | W 80-73 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 166.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs UPST | W 72-63 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | vs CREI | W 71-50 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 10 | vs WIS | W 90-60 | -1.5 | W +28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ ILL | W 83-80 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs UND | W 78-55 | -29.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 30 | vs UNH | W 86-55 | -31.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 2 | vs MSU | W 58-56 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | @ OSU | W 72-69 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @ IU | W 83-77 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ORE | W 90-55 | -10.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
+8.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+8.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−16.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+4.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
−0.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−7.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−16.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
+15.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
+28.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+12.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−6.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−0.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−0.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
+5.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+10.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
+24.5
covered 10didn’t cover 7avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
−14.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+5.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−27.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+40.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+4.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
+2.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−13.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−22.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
−34.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
−8.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+6.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−18.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−5.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−32.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
−14.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+9.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
−1.5
over 6under 11avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northwestern
17 games played
Straight up
8-9
47% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vsOSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vsILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
over 10under 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Nebraska
17-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon90–55
- W@ Indiana83–77
- W@ Ohio State72–69
- Wvs Michigan St58–56
- Wvs New Hampshire86–55
4 days since their last game.
Northwestern
8-9 overall · 0-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Illinois68–79
- L@ Rutgers75–77
- L@ Michigan St66–76
- Lvs Minnesota78–84
- Wvs Howard80–60
3 days since their last game.