Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -2.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5
MIA -2.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5Closing total152.5Over by 3.5
| MIA | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 21-6 | Record | 14-13 |
| 14-13 | ATS | 16-11 |
| 17-10 | O/U | 12-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 81–78 FSU · ✓ MIA (59%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 38 | 45 | 83 |
| FSU | 32 | 41 | 73 |
1st half: MIA 38, FSU 32 (MIA by 6). The model had MIA by 1.7 and a total of 74.1 (actual 70).
Team stats
| MIA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-59 53% | Field goals | 27-59 46% |
| 9-21 43% | 3-pointers | 8-28 29% |
| 12-19 63% | Free throws | 11-16 69% |
| 42 16 off | Rebounds | 23 7 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 7 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 37 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 8-16 | 4-8 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 35 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Malik Reneau F | 35 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9-14 | 0-1 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 34 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Dante Allen G | 23 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 25 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Timo Malovec F | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Noam Dovrat, JJ Laboy, Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones G | 35 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 8-14 | 2-5 |
| Robert McCray V G | 33 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4-14 | 0-4 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 29 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Alex Steen F | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 16 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 28 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1-7 | 1-5 |
| AJ Swinton F | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Did not play: Max Garcia-Plata, Cam Miles, Xavier Osceola, Jasen Lopez, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -2.5
no move
CloseMIA -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open160.5
▼ 8
Close152.5
Down 8 since the open
Moneyline
MIA -142 · FSU +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -2.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2.5 matches the line
model MIA -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 160.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 8 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -2.5 | MIA -2.6 | MIA +0.1 | W MIA covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 158.5 | Over 6.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MIA 80.6 · FSU 77.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MIA -1.7 | MIA -6.0 |
| 1H total | 74.1 | 70 |
| 1H projected score | MIA 37.9 · FSU 36.2 | MIA 38 · FSU 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| FSU | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MIA 1–8 FSUFSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · FSU has won the last 6 meetings · MIA 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025-26 | FSU 65 @ MIA 63 | MIA -10.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | MIA 66 @ FSU 74 | FSU -8.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | FSU 80 @ MIA 65 | MIA -2.5 | FSU W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | MIA 75 @ FSU 83 | FSU -4.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | FSU 84 @ MIA 75 | MIA -6.5 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
27 games played
Straight up
21-6
78% wins
Against the spread
14-13
52% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-10
63% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vsFSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vs STAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vs CAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vs UNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs VT | W 67-66 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | @ UVA | L 83-86 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+6.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−7.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+4.5
covered 14didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
14
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
−4.5
17
vsVT
VTW 67-66
−15.5
21
@UVA
UVAL 83-86
+23.5
over 17under 10avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
27 games played
Straight up
14-13
52% wins
Against the spread
16-11
59% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-15
44% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vsJAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsNCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vsWAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsCAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vsSTAN | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 7 | @ND | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | vsUVA | L 58-61 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | @VT | W 92-69 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 17 | vsBC | W 80-72 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 21 | @CLEM | W 70-65 | +8.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+4.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+4.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
+5.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+27.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
−3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
+13.5
covered 16didn’t cover 11avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+15.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+6.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
−36.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+4.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
+3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
−10.5
over 12under 15avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
21-6 overall · 10-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia83–86
- Wvs Virginia Tech67–66
- W@ NC State77–76
- Wvs North Carolina75–66
- W@ Boston College74–68
3 days since their last game.
Florida St
14-13 overall · 7-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Clemson70–65
- Wvs Boston College80–72
- W@ Virginia Tech92–69
- Lvs Virginia58–61
- W@ Notre Dame82–79
3 days since their last game.