Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -8.5✓ TOL covered by 9.5
TOL -8.5✓ TOL covered by 9.5Closing total146.5Under by 18.5
 BALL | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 5-13 | Record | 9-10 |
| 7-11 | ATS | 11-8 |
| 6-12 | O/U | 9-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BALL 69–78 TOL · ✓ TOL (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 27 | 28 | 55 |
| TOL | 39 | 34 | 73 |
1st half: BALL 27, TOL 39 (TOL by 12). The model had TOL by 5.4 and a total of 68.9 (actual 66).
Team stats
| BALL | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-51 31% | Field goals | 27-56 48% |
| 4-21 19% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 19-27 70% | Free throws | 12-14 86% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 35 7 off |
| 7 | Assists | 16 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 6 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni Zeigler G | 36 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 2-11 | 0-4 |
| Devon Barnes G | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Elmore James IV G | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Mason Jones F | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Preston Copeland F | 17 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Denson F | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Davion Hill G | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Kayden Fish F | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Juwan Maxey G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Jai Anthoni Bearden F | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Kody Clancy G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Easton Foster, Joey Hart, Alex Farley, Zane Doughty
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 35 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Sonny Wilson G | 34 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 8-15 | 1-4 |
| Sean Craig F | 29 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Austin Parks C | 29 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mynor Strong G | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 19 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Will James Jr. G | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| London Praytor F | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Toby Nwokolo F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Ode G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Riddle, Phoenix Glassnor
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -8.5
no move
CloseTOL -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open148.5
▼ 2
Close146.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
BALL +300 · TOL -380
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -8.5 · unchangedmodel TOL -9.5
model TOL -9.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 2 downmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOL -8.5 | TOL -9.3 | TOL +0.8 | W TOL covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 147.2 | Over 0.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | BALL 68.9 · TOL 78.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TOL -5.4 | TOL -12.0 |
| 1H total | 68.9 | 66 |
| 1H projected score | BALL 31.7 · TOL 37.2 | BALL 27 · TOL 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BALL 2–5 TOLTOL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 4 meetings · BALL 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | BALL 66 @ TOL 67 | TOL -7.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | TOL 93 @ BALL 75 | BALL -0.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | BALL 72 @ TOL 77 | TOL -11.5 | BALL W |
| Mar 3, 2022-23 | TOL 87 @ BALL 81 | BALL +4.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | BALL 90 @ TOL 83 | TOL -8.5 | BALL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ball State
18 games played
Straight up
5-13
28% wins
Against the spread
7-11
39% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-12
33% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ WIS | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs LR | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ INST | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs MONM | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ LAF | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs LEM | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @ EVAN | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs SDST | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ CAM | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vs M-OH | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ BUF | L 72-85 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 6 | vs EMU | L 52-74 | -1.5 | L −23.5 | 137.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 10 | @ MASS | L 71-79 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @ AKR | L 77-87 | +20.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 16 | vs OHIO | W 76-71 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | @ CMU | W 68-67 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | vs NIU | W 58-53 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−4.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−8.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−10.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
−4.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−19.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+12.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−5.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
+1.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
+3.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−1.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
−6.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−23.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+10.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
+10.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−0.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 11avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−15.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−16.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−32.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
+16.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−48.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+40.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−20.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
−10.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
−12.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
+15.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
+11.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−11.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+11.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
−0.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−7.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−30.5
over 6under 12avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
19 games played
Straight up
9-10
47% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vs BGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
over 9under 10avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ball State
5-13 overall · 3-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Illinois58–53
- W@ C Michigan68–67
- Wvs Ohio76–71
- L@ Akron77–87
- L@ UMass71–79
A week or more of rest.
Toledo
9-10 overall · 5-4 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Akron81–91
- Wvs Bowling Green73–72
- L@ UMass82–84
- L@ Kent State84–87
- Wvs Ohio101–85
4 days since their last game.