Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas · Conference game
Closing line
ARK -7.5✓ ARK covered by 5.5
ARK -7.5✓ ARK covered by 5.5Closing total165.5Under by 2.5
 AUB | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 14-10 | Record | 18-6 |
| 12-12 | ATS | 16-8 |
| 14-10 | O/U | 12-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AUB 83–86 ARK · ✓ ARK (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 32 | 43 | 75 |
| ARK | 38 | 50 | 88 |
1st half: AUB 32, ARK 38 (ARK by 6). The model had ARK by 1.6 and a total of 79.0 (actual 70).
Team stats
| AUB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-66 41% | Field goals | 35-61 57% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 15-20 75% | Free throws | 10-15 67% |
| 34 15 off | Rebounds | 31 7 off |
| 10 | Assists | 19 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 10 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Overton G | 39 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-13 | 0-5 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 38 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 11-18 | 4-7 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 36 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-4 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 34 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 9-16 | 0-2 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Filip Jovic C | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Simon Walker G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drake Cardwell, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Keyshawn Hall, Abdul Bashir, CJ Williams, Joah Shay, Reed Trapp, Kaden Magwood
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Richmond III G | 38 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 12-15 | 0-1 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 38 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 10-15 | 7-10 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 36 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 36 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Nick Pringle F | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malique Ewin F | 19 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| DJ Wagner G | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Karter Knox G | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Isaiah Sealy, Amere Brown
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARK -7.5
ModelARK -2.9
Model edgeAUB +4.6
L ARK covered
Total
Market165.5
Model169.2
Model edgeOver 3.7
L Under
Projected score
AUB 83.1 · ARK 86.1
AUB 75 · ARK 88
Win probability
ARK 60%
1st half
Spread
ARK -1.6
ARK -6.0
Total
79.0
70 points
Projected score
AUB 38.7 · ARK 40.3
AUB 32 · ARK 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -6.5
1 → ARK
CloseARK -7.5
1 pt toward ARK
Total
Open166.5
▼ 1
Close165.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
AUB +285 · ARK -360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -6.5 · closed ARK -7.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -3
model ARK -3
Opened 166.5 · closed 165.5 · moved 1 downmodel 169
model 169
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| ARK | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
AUB 4–2 ARKAUB leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · AUB has won the last 3 meetings · AUB 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | ARK 73 @ AUB 95 | AUB -2.5 | AUB W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | ARK 60 @ AUB 67 | AUB -15.5 | ARK W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | AUB 83 @ ARK 51 | ARK +2.5 | AUB W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | ARK 76 vs AUB 73 | AUB +2.5 | ARK W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | ARK 59 @ AUB 72 | AUB -2.5 | AUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Auburn
24 games played
Straight up
14-10
58% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vs TA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @ MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vs TEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ TENN | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | vs ALA | L 92-96 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 10 | vs VAN | L 76-84 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−2.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
−6.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−11.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
+12.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−1.5
over 14under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
24 games played
Straight up
18-6
75% wins
Against the spread
16-8
67% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vsJKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vsQUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | vsHOU | L 85-94 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs JMU | W 103-74 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 3 | vsTENN | W 86-75 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 7 | @MISS | W 94-87 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | @AUB | L 73-95 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | vsSC | W 108-74 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | @UGA | L 76-90 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 181.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 20 | vsVAN | W 93-68 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | vs LSU | W 85-81 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 27 | @ OU | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs UK | L 77-85 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSST | W 88-68 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 10 | @LSU | W 91-62 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
−3.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+5.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+12.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+3.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−19.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+21.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−11.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
+23.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
−6.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
+0.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
−14.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
+14.5
10
@LSU
LSUW 91-62
+24.5
covered 16didn’t cover 8avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
+32.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+17.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+2.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+27.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−1.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+26.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−15.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
−12.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
+2.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
−5.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
+2.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
−7.5
10
@LSU
LSUW 91-62
−6.5
over 12under 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Auburn
14-10 overall · 5-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Vanderbilt76–84
- Lvs Alabama92–96
- L@ Tennessee69–77
- Wvs Texas88–82
- W@ Florida76–67
4 days since their last game.
Arkansas
18-6 overall · 8-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ LSU91–62
- W@ Mississippi St88–68
- Lvs Kentucky77–85
- W@ Oklahoma83–79
- Wvs LSU85–81
4 days since their last game.