Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
ARK -5.5✓ ARK covered by 14.5
ARK -5.5✓ ARK covered by 14.5Closing total163.5Under by 7.5
| ARK | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 16-6 | Record | 11-11 |
| 14-8 | ATS | 8-14 |
| 12-10 | O/U | 11-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARK 86–80 MSST · ✓ ARK (71%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 43 | 45 | 88 |
| MSST | 30 | 38 | 68 |
1st half: ARK 43, MSST 30 (ARK by 13). The model had ARK by 4.0 and a total of 77.7 (actual 73).
Team stats
| ARK | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-69 52% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 3-15 20% |
| 8-12 67% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 38 11 off | Rebounds | 33 9 off |
| 22 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 9 | Blocks | 7 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Brazile F | 40 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7-12 | 2-6 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 40 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 7-17 | 3-8 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 38 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 9-19 | 3-5 |
| Nick Pringle F | 28 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 25 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7-11 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Sealy F | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Malique Ewin F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amere Brown, Karter Knox, Jaden Karuletwa, Ayden Kelley, Paulo Semedo, Karim Rtail, Elmir Dzafic, DJ Wagner
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 33 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 7-15 | 0-4 |
| Achor Achor F | 27 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 7-13 | 1-3 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 25 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 24 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Epps G | 23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| King Grace G | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Sergej Macura F | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Gai Chol
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -6.5
1 → MSST
CloseARK -5.5
1 pt toward MSST
Total
Open161.5
▲ 2
Close163.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ARK -270 · MSST +220
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -6.5 · closed ARK -5.5 · moved 1 toward MSSTmodel ARK -6.5
model ARK -6.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 2 upmodel 166
model 166
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARK -5.5 | ARK -6.5 | ARK +1.0 | W ARK covered |
| Total | 163.5 | 166.2 | Over 2.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | ARK 86.3 · MSST 79.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ARK -4.0 | ARK -13.0 |
| 1H total | 77.7 | 73 |
| 1H projected score | ARK 40.8 · MSST 36.8 | ARK 43 · MSST 30 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| MSST | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ARK 2–3 MSSTMSST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · ARK 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | MSST 92 @ ARK 93 | ARK -1.5 | MSST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | ARK 67 @ MSST 71 | MSST -11.5 | ARK W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | MSST 70 @ ARK 64 | ARK -7.5 | MSST W |
| Feb 5, 2021-22 | MSST 55 @ ARK 63 | ARK -6 | ARK W |
| Dec 29, 2021-22 | ARK 68 @ MSST 81 | MSST -4.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas
22 games played
Straight up
16-6
73% wins
Against the spread
14-8
64% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-10
55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs QUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | vs HOU | L 85-94 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs JMU | W 103-74 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 3 | vs TENN | W 86-75 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 7 | @ MISS | W 94-87 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | @ AUB | L 73-95 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | vs SC | W 108-74 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | @ UGA | L 76-90 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 181.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 20 | vs VAN | W 93-68 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | vs LSU | W 85-81 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 27 | @ OU | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs UK | L 77-85 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
−3.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+5.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+12.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+3.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−19.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+21.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−11.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
+23.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
−6.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
+0.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
−14.5
covered 14didn’t cover 8avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
+32.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+17.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+2.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+27.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−1.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+26.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−15.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
−12.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
+2.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
−5.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
+2.5
over 12under 10avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
22 games played
Straight up
11-11
50% wins
Against the spread
8-14
36% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-11
50% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vsOU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vsMISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vsVAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 14avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
over 11under 11avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas
16-6 overall · 6-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Kentucky77–85
- W@ Oklahoma83–79
- Wvs LSU85–81
- Wvs Vanderbilt93–68
- L@ Georgia76–90
A week or more of rest.
Mississippi St
11-11 overall · 3-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Missouri79–84
- W@ LSU80–66
- Lvs Vanderbilt56–88
- L@ Texas A&M68–88
- Lvs Ole Miss67–68
A week or more of rest.