Murphy Center · at MTSU · Conference game
Closing line
LIB -1.5✓ LIB covered by 14.5
LIB -1.5✓ LIB covered by 14.5Closing total136.5Over by 9.5
| LIB | This season | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | Record | 8-8 |
| 9-8 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 8-9 | O/U | 6-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 71–70 MTSU · ✓ LIB (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 43 | 38 | 81 |
| MTSU | 29 | 36 | 65 |
1st half: LIB 43, MTSU 29 (LIB by 14). The model had LIB by 0.6 and a total of 66.2 (actual 72).
Team stats
| LIB | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-52 62% | Field goals | 23-54 43% |
| 10-21 48% | 3-pointers | 9-27 33% |
| 7-10 70% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 23 0 off | Rebounds | 33 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 11 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Porter G | 37 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-9 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 34 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 11-14 | 6-9 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 34 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-2 |
| JJ Harper G | 33 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zander Carter G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Josh Smith F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryan Jones Jr., TJ Drain, Drew Grimes, Torr Sorensen, Brady Kester, Isaiah Ihnen, JC Shirer Jr.
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torey Alston F | 38 | 20 | 12 | 1 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Jahvin Carter G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| Kamari Lands G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Chris Loofe F | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sean Smith G | 31 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 6-11 | 4-7 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 23 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Whitlock Jr. G | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| James Dent Jr. G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tre Green G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jax Howard, Savon Wykle, Brandon Oloumou, Charvez Ambrose, Jarred Hall
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIB -1.5
ModelLIB -0.7
Model edgeMTSU +0.8
L LIB covered
Total
Market136.5
Model141.3
Model edgeOver 4.8
W Over
Projected score
LIB 71 · MTSU 70.3
LIB 81 · MTSU 65
Win probability
LIB 53%
1st half
Spread
LIB -0.6
LIB -14.0
Total
66.2
72 points
Projected score
LIB 33.4 · MTSU 32.8
LIB 43 · MTSU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -2.5
1 → MTSU
CloseLIB -1.5
1 pt toward MTSU
Total
Open136.5
no move
Close136.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
LIB -122 · MTSU +102
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -2.5 · closed LIB -1.5 · moved 1 toward MTSUmodel LIB -0.5
model LIB -0.5
Opened 136.5 · unchangedmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| MTSU | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LIB 3–1 MTSULIB leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · LIB has won the last 2 meetings · LIB 3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024-25 | LIB 86 @ MTSU 81 | MTSU -1.5 | LIB W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | MTSU 63 @ LIB 73 | LIB -7.5 | LIB W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | LIB 61 @ MTSU 69 | MTSU +5.5 | MTSU W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | MTSU 53 @ LIB 88 | LIB -10.5 | LIB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
17 games played
Straight up
14-3
82% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-9
47% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 20 | @ DAY | W 64-61 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 28 | @ FIU | W 97-94 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 2 | vs KENN | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 4 | vs JXST | W 78-69 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 8 | @ LT | W 72-56 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | @ SHSU | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vs NMSU | W 73-71 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs UTEP | W 80-69 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 21 | @ WKU | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 24 | vs DEL | W 67-51 | -15.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 118 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
+12.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
−1.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
+0.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
−0.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
+11.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+6.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−6.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
−2.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
+5.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
−17.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
+38.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
−4.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
+12.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
−7.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+1.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−1.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
+11.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
−3.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
−16.5
over 8under 9avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
MTSU
16 games played
Straight up
8-8
50% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vsKENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ HOU | L 60-69 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 2 | vsLT | W 88-51 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | vsSHSU | W 68-67 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @UTEP | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | @NMSU | W 59-55 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 14 | @LT | L 58-59 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 131.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 17 | vs MOST | W 90-87 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 23 | @JXST | L 58-75 | -1.5 | L −18.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
+16.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+30.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−3.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
−6.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
+7.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−4.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
−2.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−18.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
−9.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+4.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−21.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
+25.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
−30.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−14.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
+39.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−0.5
over 6under 10avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
14-3 overall · 9-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Delaware67–51
- W@ Western KY76–69
- Wvs UTEP80–69
- Wvs New Mexico St73–71
- W@ Sam Houston82–74
5 days since their last game.
MTSU
8-8 overall · 5-3 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Jax State58–75
- Wvs Missouri St90–87
- L@ Louisiana Tech58–59
- W@ New Mexico St59–55
- L@ UTEP80–83
6 days since their last game.