When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Tennessee Titans · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 45% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Tennessee Titans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
JAX -13.5 | 46.5 | 14384148 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 7–41 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NO -1.5 | 38.5 | 6304360 | Q3 | NO Q4 Late cover flip |
34–26 |
2025 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 37.5 | 0152535 | U | TEN Q1 | 9–26 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SF -12.5 | 44.5 | 10274161 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late cover flip |
24–37 |
2025 · Week 14 |
CLE -4.5 | 33.5 | 17313860 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 31–29 |
2025 · Week 13 |
JAX -6 | 42.5 | 10212828 | U | JAX Q2 | 25–3 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SEA -11.5 | 41.5 | 6194754 | Q3 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip |
30–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 37.5 | 331629 | U | TEN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LAC -9.5 | 44.5 | 21373747 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
27–20 |
2025 · Week 8 |
IND -14.5 | 47.5 | 10243852 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
14–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NE -6.5 | 41.5 | 13304444 | Q3 | NE Q3 | 31–13 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LV -4.5 | 41.5 | 3102030 | U | LV Q2 | 10–20 |
2025 · Week 5 |
ARI -7.5 | 41.5 | 17272743 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
22–21 |
2025 · Week 4 |
HOU -7.5 | 39.5 | 36626 | U | HOU Q4 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 3 |
IND -5.5 | 42.5 | 20264761 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 41–20 |
2025 · Week 2 |
LAR -5.5 | 40.5 | 7233652 | Q4 | LAR Q4 | 33–19 |
2025 · Week 1 |
DEN -9.5 | 43.5 | 6192532 | U | TEN Q1 | 12–20 |
TEN
JAX
NO
KC
SF
CLE
SEA
HOU
LAC
IND
NE
LV
ARI
LAR
DENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 6
Q2 18% 3
Q3 18% 3
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 59% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 65% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 5 | 100% 5 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.