When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · New York Jets · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 9% had cashed by halftime and 36% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · New York Jets · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
BUF -13.5 | 39.5 | 7212943 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 8–35 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 14384552 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 42–10 |
2025 · Week 16 |
NO -7 | 39.5 | 6152235 | U | NO Q3 | 6–29 |
2025 · Week 15 |
JAX -13.5 | 40.5 | 21415468 | Q2 | JAX Q2 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIA -2.5 | 41.5 | 28313144 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
34–10 |
2025 · Week 13 |
ATL -3 | 38.5 | 0143151 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BAL -14.5 | 44.5 | 0102433 | U | NYJ Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 7213541 | U | NE Q4 | 14–27 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CLE -2.5 | 37.5 | 21343447 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 | 20–27 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CIN -5.5 | 43.5 | 10374777 | Q3 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
39–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NYJ -1.5 | 39.5 | 3131619 | U | CAR Q1 | 13–6 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 16162124 | U | NYJ Q1 | 13–11 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 47.5 | 6263659 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
37–22 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 43.5 | 3133448 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
TB -6.5 | 42.5 | 6262956 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–29 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BUF -5.5 | 46.5 | 10232640 | U | BUF Q1 | 30–10 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PIT -2.5 | 38.5 | 16364366 | Q3 | NYJ Q1 Lead lost |
34–32 |
NYJ
BUF
NE
NO
JAX
MIA
ATL
BAL
CLE
CIN
CAR
DEN
DAL
TB
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 12% 2
Q3 6% 1
Q4 24% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 80% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.