When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Minnesota Vikings · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 12% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Minnesota Vikings · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
MIN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3131319 | U | GB Q1 | 3–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DET -7.5 | 45.5 | 7142033 | U | MIN Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 3232329 | U | MIN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 15 |
DAL -5.5 | 47.5 | 14344760 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 34–26 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIN -1.5 | 43.5 | 7142431 | U | MIN Q1 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SEA -12.5 | 42.5 | 0131926 | U | SEA Q2 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10162329 | U | GB Q3 | 6–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIN -3 | 47.5 | 3131936 | U | CHI Q2 | 19–17 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BAL -4.5 | 49.5 | 10193246 | U | BAL Q3 | 27–19 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DET -9.5 | 47.5 | 21314151 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 8 |
LAC -3.5 | 44.5 | 7243447 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
10–37 |
2025 · Week 7 |
PHI -2.5 | 44.5 | 10203750 | Q4 | PHI Q1 | 28–22 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIN -3.5 | 35.5 | 14173138 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–17 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 10202745 | Q4 | PIT Q1 Late over |
21–24 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 14375158 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIN -3.5 | 44.5 | 6151828 | U | ATL Q1 | 22–6 |
2025 · Week 1 |
CHI -1.5 | 43.5 | 7162351 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late over |
27–24 |
GB
MIN
DET
NYG
DAL
WSH
SEA
CHI
BAL
LAC
PHI
CLE
PIT
CIN
ATLWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 65% 11
Q2 12% 2
Q3 12% 2
Q4 12% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 73% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 82% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.