When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Indianapolis Colts · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 11% had cashed by halftime and 56% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Indianapolis Colts · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
HOU -9.5 | 37.5 | 16405368 | Q2 | IND Q1 | 30–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
JAX -4.5 | 48.5 | 3173440 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SF -4.5 | 46.5 | 21415475 | Q3 | SF Q1 | 48–27 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SEA -12.5 | 41.5 | 6192234 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
16–18 |
2025 · Week 14 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 21384155 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 19–36 |
2025 · Week 13 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162636 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 12 |
KC -4.5 | 49.5 | 723294043 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 10 |
IND -5.5 | 48.5 | 2027305056 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip Late over |
25–31 |
2025 · Week 9 |
IND -3.5 | 51.5 | 7242447 | U | PIT Q2 | 20–27 |
2025 · Week 8 |
IND -14.5 | 47.5 | 10243852 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
14–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAC -2.5 | 48.5 | 9265562 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 38–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
IND -8.5 | 46.5 | 14244158 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
IND -7.5 | 46.5 | 3234346 | U | IND Q2 | 6–40 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 6232347 | U | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
IND -5.5 | 42.5 | 20264761 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 41–20 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DEN -1.5 | 43.5 | 13415157 | Q3 | IND Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–29 |
2025 · Week 1 |
IND -1.5 | 47.5 | 3202341 | U | IND Q1 | 8–33 |
IND
HOU
JAX
SF
SEA
KC
ATL
PIT
TEN
LAC
ARI
LV
LAR
DEN
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 12% 2
Q3 6% 1
Q4 18% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 71% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 60% and covered 87% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 5 | 100% 5 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.