When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Green Bay Packers · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 11% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Green Bay Packers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
GB -1.5 | 46.5 | 10242758 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
MIN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3131319 | U | GB Q1 | 3–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
GB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14415165 | Q2 | BAL Q1 | 41–24 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 15 |
GB -1.5 | 42.5 | 3305060 | Q3 | DEN Q3 | 26–34 |
2025 · Week 14 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 0173549 | Q4 | GB Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
21–28 |
2025 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10162329 | U | GB Q3 | 6–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
GB -7.5 | 42.5 | 7263247 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–20 |
2025 · Week 10 |
GB -1.5 | 44.5 | 00317 | U | PHI Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Week 9 |
GB -13.5 | 43.5 | 0131929 | U | CAR Q1 | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 8 |
GB -2.5 | 45.5 | 10233360 | Q4 | GB Q4 | 35–25 |
2025 · Week 7 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 3193350 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–23 |
2025 · Week 6 |
GB -13.5 | 44.5 | 0101745 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
18–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 729437480 | Q4 | DAL Q2 Lead lost |
40–40 |
2025 · Week 3 |
GB -7.5 | 40.5 | 031023 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
10–13 |
2025 · Week 2 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 7172045 | U | GB Q1 | 18–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
GB -1.5 | 48.5 | 10202340 | U | GB Q1 | 13–27 |
GB
CHI
MIN
BAL
DEN
NYG
PHI
CAR
PIT
ARI
CIN
DAL
CLE
WSH
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 9
Q2 12% 2
Q3 12% 2
Q4 18% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 53% and covered 53% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 65% and covered 59% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 8 | 13% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.