When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Cincinnati Bengals · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 12% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Cincinnati Bengals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
CIN -8.5 | 47.5 | 13262938 | U | CLE Q1 | 20–18 |
2025 · Week 17 |
CIN -7 | 53.5 | 7304451 | U | CIN Q2 | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CIN -3.5 | 48.5 | 14315266 | Q3 | CIN Q3 | 45–21 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BAL -2.5 | 51.5 | 0141724 | U | BAL Q2 | 24–0 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BUF -6 | 54.5 | 10323973 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–39 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BAL -7 | 52.5 | 10194046 | U | CIN Q1 | 32–14 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NE -7.5 | 50.5 | 3303346 | U | CIN Q1 Late cover flip |
26–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
PIT -5.5 | 47.5 | 13162946 | U | PIT Q3 | 12–34 |
2025 · Week 9 |
CHI -2.5 | 51.5 | 17375889 | Q3 | CHI Q3 | 47–42 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CIN -5.5 | 43.5 | 10374777 | Q3 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
39–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
PIT -5.5 | 44.5 | 7273764 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 31–33 |
2025 · Week 6 |
GB -13.5 | 44.5 | 0101745 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
18–27 |
2025 · Week 5 |
DET -9.5 | 48.5 | 7173161 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 37–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
DEN -7.5 | 44.5 | 10242431 | U | DEN Q2 | 3–28 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 14375158 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 2 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 14274858 | Q4 | CIN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 1 |
CIN -5.5 | 47.5 | 7243333 | U | CLE Q2 | 17–16 |
CLE
CIN
ARI
MIA
BAL
BUF
NE
PIT
CHI
NYJ
GB
DET
DEN
MIN
JAXWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 6
Q2 35% 6
Q3 18% 3
Q4 12% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 65% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.