When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Baltimore Ravens · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 9% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Baltimore Ravens · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
BAL -4.5 | 41.5 | 7132350 | Q4 | PIT Q3 Late over Lead lost |
24–26 |
2025 · Week 17 |
GB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14415165 | Q2 | BAL Q1 | 41–24 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BAL -3.5 | 47.5 | 7203052 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BAL -2.5 | 51.5 | 0141724 | U | BAL Q2 | 24–0 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BAL -5.5 | 43.5 | 10264349 | Q4 | PIT Q1 | 27–22 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BAL -7 | 52.5 | 10194046 | U | CIN Q1 | 32–14 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BAL -14.5 | 44.5 | 0102433 | U | NYJ Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BAL -7.5 | 37.5 | 6262639 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
23–16 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BAL -4.5 | 49.5 | 10193246 | U | BAL Q3 | 27–19 |
2025 · Week 9 |
BAL -7.5 | 51.5 | 10203434 | U | BAL Q2 | 28–6 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BAL -2.5 | 44.5 | 6162246 | Q4 | BAL Q2 Late over |
16–30 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LAR -6.5 | 44.5 | 362020 | U | LAR Q3 | 17–3 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 10274454 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 44–10 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BAL -2.5 | 49.5 | 10304357 | Q4 | KC Q2 | 20–37 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BAL -4.5 | 53.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 38–30 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BAL -12.5 | 46.5 | 3133058 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
17–41 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 10335381 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
40–41 |
BAL
PIT
GB
NE
CIN
NYJ
CLE
MIN
MIA
CHI
LAR
HOU
KC
DET
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 41% 7
Q2 24% 4
Q3 18% 3
Q4 18% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 64% and covered 79% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.