When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Arizona Cardinals · pick one to list those games
59% went over. Of the 10 overs, 10% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Arizona Cardinals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
LAR -14.5 | 49.5 | 6224357 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip |
20–37 |
2025 · Week 17 |
CIN -7 | 53.5 | 7304451 | U | CIN Q2 | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 16 |
ATL -2.5 | 48.5 | 13323545 | U | ATL Q3 | 26–19 |
2025 · Week 15 |
HOU -10.5 | 42.5 | 17304460 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 20–40 |
2025 · Week 14 |
LAR -9.5 | 49.5 | 17344862 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 45–17 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TB -4.5 | 45.5 | 0132737 | U | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
JAX -1.5 | 46.5 | 1424314851 | Q4 | JAX OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 20354563 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 41–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SEA -7.5 | 44.5 | 21455366 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DAL -3.5 | 53.5 | 3243744 | U | ARI Q1 | 27–17 |
2025 · Week 7 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 3193350 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–23 |
2025 · Week 6 |
IND -8.5 | 46.5 | 14244158 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
ARI -7.5 | 41.5 | 17272743 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
22–21 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SEA -1.5 | 43.5 | 10172343 | U | SEA Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SF -1.5 | 43.5 | 091231 | U | ARI Q3 | 15–16 |
2025 · Week 2 |
ARI -6.5 | 45.5 | 13233649 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ARI -5.5 | 44.5 | 3273033 | U | ARI Q2 | 20–13 |
ARI
LAR
CIN
ATL
HOU
TB
JAX
SF
SEA
DAL
GB
IND
TEN
CAR
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 41% 7
Q2 18% 3
Q3 12% 2
Q4 24% 4
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 81% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.