When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Tennessee Titans · pick one to list those games
59% went over. Of the 10 overs, 10% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Tennessee Titans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 3162333 | U | JAX Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 16 |
IND -4.5 | 43.5 | 7315368 | Q3 | IND Q2 | 30–38 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CIN -6.5 | 46.5 | 21384564 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TEN -3.5 | 40.5 | 33616 | U | JAX Q4 | 10–6 |
2024 · Week 13 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 21354161 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 19–42 |
2024 · Week 12 |
HOU -7.5 | 40.5 | 17374759 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 32–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
MIN -5.5 | 40.5 | 10193336 | U | MIN Q2 | 23–13 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LAC -8.5 | 40.5 | 10203044 | Q4 | LAC Q3 Late over |
17–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
TEN -3.5 | 38.5 | 710203437 | U | NE Q3 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DET -12.5 | 46.5 | 21496666 | Q2 | DET Q2 | 14–52 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BUF -9.5 | 41.5 | 3172744 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late over |
10–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TEN -2.5 | 41.5 | 14202737 | U | IND Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 37.5 | 0122543 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over |
31–12 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 24274144 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NYJ -3.5 | 42.5 | 7173441 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip |
24–17 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CHI -4.5 | 42.5 | 7202741 | U | CHI Q4 | 17–24 |
HOU
TEN
JAX
IND
CIN
WSH
MIN
LAC
NE
DET
BUF
MIA
GB
NYJ
CHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 6
Q2 24% 4
Q3 12% 2
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 73% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.