When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Seattle Seahawks · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Seattle Seahawks · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 17 |
SEA -4.5 | 42.5 | 3999 | U | CHI Q1 | 6–3 |
2024 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 43.5 | 7313751 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
GB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14232943 | U | GB Q1 | 30–13 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ARI -3.5 | 45.5 | 24344548 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
30–18 |
2024 · Week 13 |
NYJ -1.5 | 41.5 | 14373747 | Q4 | SEA Q4 | 26–21 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ARI -1.5 | 46.5 | 0101622 | U | SEA Q1 | 6–16 |
2024 · Week 11 |
SF -6.5 | 48.5 | 10132337 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAR -2 | 48.5 | 016264046 | U | LAR OT | 26–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7172741 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 7 |
ATL -2.5 | 51.5 | 3243848 | U | SEA Q1 | 34–14 |
2024 · Week 6 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 3194060 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
36–24 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SEA -7.5 | 41.5 | 7203349 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
29–20 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DET -4.5 | 47.5 | 7285571 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 29–42 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SEA -4.5 | 41.5 | 20202027 | U | SEA Q1 | 3–24 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 39.5 | 1430304043 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
20–26 |
SEA
LAR
CHI
MIN
GB
ARI
NYJ
SF
BUF
ATL
NYG
DET
MIA
NE
DENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 71% 12
Q2 6% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 18% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.