When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · San Francisco 49ers · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · San Francisco 49ers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 3232946 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
17–29 |
2024 · Week 15 |
SF -2.5 | 48.5 | 36918 | U | LAR Q4 | 12–6 |
2024 · Week 14 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 14243051 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 13–38 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243845 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243448 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
10–38 |
2024 · Week 11 |
SF -6.5 | 48.5 | 10132337 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 10 |
SF -6.5 | 50.5 | 7132343 | U | TB Q3 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SF -5.5 | 47.5 | 3163754 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 7 |
SF -2.5 | 47.5 | 3202646 | U | KC Q2 | 28–18 |
2024 · Week 6 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 3194060 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
36–24 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 17333647 | U | ARI Q4 Lead lost |
24–23 |
2024 · Week 4 |
SF -10.5 | 41.5 | 6233743 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
13–30 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3202740 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 10233951 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
19–32 |
SF
ARI
DET
MIA
LAR
CHI
BUF
GB
SEA
TB
DAL
KC
NE
MIN
NYJWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 29% 5
Q2 29% 5
Q3 12% 2
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 69% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 76% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.