When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · New Orleans Saints · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 8 overs, 25% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · New Orleans Saints · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
TB -14.5 | 44.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LV -2.5 | 37.5 | 3232635 | U | LV Q1 | 25–10 |
2024 · Week 16 |
GB -14.5 | 43.5 | 7212434 | U | GB Q2 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
WSH -7.5 | 44.5 | 7142439 | U | NO Q4 | 20–19 |
2024 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 41.5 | 7101725 | U | NYG Q4 Late cover flip |
14–11 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAR -2.5 | 48.5 | 361335 | U | LAR Q4 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 11 |
CLE -1.5 | 43.5 | 13202849 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
14–35 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ATL -4.5 | 47.5 | 0243737 | U | NO Q1 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NO -7.5 | 43.5 | 6233345 | Q4 | CAR Q1 Late over Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 8 |
LAC -7.5 | 41.5 | 2142434 | U | LAC Q3 | 8–26 |
2024 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 37.5 | 3192943 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late over |
33–10 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 42.5 | 17515878 | Q2 | TB Q3 | 51–27 |
2024 · Week 5 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 7232339 | U | KC Q1 | 13–26 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 42.5 | 14313750 | Q4 | NO Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 3 |
NO -2.5 | 48.5 | 33327 | U | PHI Q4 | 15–12 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 17516063 | Q2 | NO Q1 | 44–19 |
2024 · Week 1 |
NO -3.5 | 41.5 | 17334757 | Q3 | NO Q1 | 10–47 |
NO
TB
LV
GB
WSH
NYG
LAR
CLE
ATL
CAR
LAC
DEN
KC
PHI
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 9
Q2 6% 1
Q3 12% 2
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 59% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.