When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · New England Patriots · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 9% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 12% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · New England Patriots · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAC -5.5 | 41.5 | 7273747 | Q4 | LAC Q1 | 40–7 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BUF -14.5 | 47.5 | 7213145 | U | NE Q1 | 21–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ARI -5.5 | 46.5 | 10161947 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over |
17–30 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIA -7.5 | 45.5 | 0243149 | Q4 | MIA Q2 | 15–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAR -4.5 | 42.5 | 7244150 | Q4 | LAR Q3 | 28–22 |
2024 · Week 10 |
CHI -6.5 | 37.5 | 3161622 | U | NE Q1 | 19–3 |
2024 · Week 9 |
TEN -3.5 | 38.5 | 710203437 | U | NE Q3 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
NYJ -7.5 | 41.5 | 13203047 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
22–25 |
2024 · Week 7 |
JAX -6.5 | 41.5 | 7323548 | Q4 | JAX Q2 Late over |
16–32 |
2024 · Week 6 |
HOU -6.5 | 39.5 | 14214162 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 4 |
SF -10.5 | 41.5 | 6233743 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
13–30 |
2024 · Week 3 |
NYJ -6.5 | 39.5 | 7172427 | U | NYJ Q1 | 3–24 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 39.5 | 1430304043 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CIN -7.5 | 40.5 | 0102026 | U | NE Q1 | 16–10 |
BUF
NE
LAC
ARI
IND
MIA
LAR
CHI
TEN
NYJ
JAX
HOU
SF
SEA
CINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 18% 3
Q3 12% 2
Q4 12% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 76% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.