When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Jacksonville Jaguars · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 35% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Jacksonville Jaguars · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
IND -3.5 | 45.5 | 1433334649 | Q4 | JAX Q4 Late over |
23–26 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 3162333 | U | JAX Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LV -2.5 | 41.5 | 7202733 | U | LV Q4 | 14–19 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TEN -3.5 | 40.5 | 33616 | U | JAX Q4 | 10–6 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DET -14.5 | 47.5 | 10344858 | Q3 | DET Q2 | 6–52 |
2024 · Week 10 |
MIN -7.5 | 42.5 | 10101319 | U | JAX Q1 | 12–7 |
2024 · Week 9 |
PHI -7.5 | 46.5 | 7163851 | Q4 | JAX Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
23–28 |
2024 · Week 8 |
GB -3.5 | 49.5 | 0233757 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
30–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
JAX -6.5 | 41.5 | 7323548 | Q4 | JAX Q2 Late over |
16–32 |
2024 · Week 6 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 3173151 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 16–35 |
2024 · Week 5 |
JAX -3.5 | 44.5 | 7233071 | Q4 | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
34–37 |
2024 · Week 4 |
HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | 17303744 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13374757 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 2 |
JAX -3.5 | 41.5 | 7162631 | U | CLE Q1 | 18–13 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -3.5 | 49.5 | 7243137 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
JAX
IND
TEN
LV
NYJ
HOU
DET
MIN
PHI
GB
NE
CHI
BUF
CLE
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 41% 7
Q2 18% 3
Q3 6% 1
Q4 35% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 53% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 71% and covered 59% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.