When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Indianapolis Colts · pick one to list those games
59% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 35% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Indianapolis Colts · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
IND -3.5 | 45.5 | 1433334649 | Q4 | JAX Q4 Late over |
23–26 |
2024 · Week 17 |
IND -7.5 | 40.5 | 10344878 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 33–45 |
2024 · Week 16 |
IND -4.5 | 43.5 | 7315368 | Q3 | IND Q2 | 30–38 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DEN -3.5 | 43.5 | 7202344 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 13–31 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DET -6.5 | 49.5 | 3202730 | U | DET Q2 | 24–6 |
2024 · Week 11 |
NYJ -4.5 | 43.5 | 3203355 | Q4 | IND Q1 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13333350 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
30–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 072134 | U | MIN Q3 Late cover flip |
13–21 |
2024 · Week 8 |
HOU -4.5 | 45.5 | 13273343 | U | IND Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 7 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 7132026 | U | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
10–16 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TEN -2.5 | 41.5 | 14202737 | U | IND Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 5 |
JAX -3.5 | 44.5 | 7233071 | Q4 | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
34–37 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PIT -2.5 | 40.5 | 14202751 | Q4 | IND Q1 | 24–27 |
2024 · Week 3 |
IND -2.5 | 43.5 | 071737 | U | IND Q2 | 16–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 10101626 | U | GB Q1 | 10–16 |
2024 · Week 1 |
HOU -3.5 | 48.5 | 13192856 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
29–27 |
JAX
IND
NYG
TEN
DEN
NE
DET
NYJ
BUF
MIN
HOU
MIA
PIT
CHI
GBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 6
Q2 18% 3
Q3 12% 2
Q4 35% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 56% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 50% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.