When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Denver Broncos · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Denver Broncos · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 10172838 | U | BUF Q3 | 7–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DEN -11.5 | 40.5 | 14243138 | U | DEN Q1 | 0–38 |
2024 · Week 17 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 310204854 | OT | CIN OT Late cover flip Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 14344361 | Q3 | LAC Q4 | 27–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DEN -3.5 | 43.5 | 7202344 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 13–31 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DEN -5.5 | 41.5 | 3222948 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 29–19 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 10273444 | U | DEN Q1 | 6–38 |
2024 · Week 10 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 0242730 | U | DEN Q1 | 14–16 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BAL -8.5 | 46.5 | 7344851 | Q3 | BAL Q2 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DEN -12.5 | 40.5 | 7283542 | Q4 | DEN Q2 Late over |
14–28 |
2024 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 37.5 | 3192943 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late over |
33–10 |
2024 · Week 6 |
LAC -2.5 | 37.5 | 10202339 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
23–16 |
2024 · Week 5 |
DEN -2.5 | 35.5 | 10233052 | Q4 | DEN Q2 | 18–34 |
2024 · Week 4 |
NYJ -8.5 | 39.5 | 061319 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–9 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TB -5.5 | 40.5 | 14272733 | U | DEN Q1 | 26–7 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
20–26 |
DEN
BUF
KC
CIN
LAC
IND
CLE
LV
ATL
BAL
CAR
NO
NYJ
TB
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 8
Q2 18% 3
Q3 6% 1
Q4 24% 4
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 65% and covered 76% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.