When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Cleveland Browns · pick one to list those games
41% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 12% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Cleveland Browns · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 16 |
CIN -10.5 | 46.5 | 7172330 | U | CIN Q2 | 6–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
KC -3.5 | 41.5 | 7142828 | U | KC Q1 | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PIT -6.5 | 42.5 | 10203441 | U | PIT Q3 | 14–27 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
CLE -1.5 | 43.5 | 13202849 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
14–35 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAC -1.5 | 41.5 | 7232337 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–10 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BAL -7.5 | 44.5 | 3163753 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over |
24–29 |
2024 · Week 7 |
CIN -5.5 | 42.5 | 7132735 | U | CIN Q3 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PHI -8.5 | 42.5 | 0202336 | U | CLE Q1 | 16–20 |
2024 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 43.5 | 7274047 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CLE -2.5 | 38.5 | 10203036 | U | LV Q2 | 16–20 |
2024 · Week 3 |
CLE -6.5 | 37.5 | 14282836 | U | NYG Q1 | 21–15 |
2024 · Week 2 |
JAX -3.5 | 41.5 | 7162631 | U | CLE Q1 | 18–13 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CLE -2 | 42.5 | 10234050 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 33–17 |
CLE
BAL
MIA
CIN
KC
PIT
DEN
NO
LAC
PHI
WSH
LV
NYG
JAX
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 12% 2
Q3 18% 3
Q4 12% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 93% and covered 93% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 94% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.