When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Cincinnati Bengals · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 9% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Cincinnati Bengals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 17 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 310204854 | OT | CIN OT Late cover flip Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 16 |
CIN -10.5 | 46.5 | 7172330 | U | CIN Q2 | 6–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CIN -6.5 | 46.5 | 21384564 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
CIN -3.5 | 46.5 | 21485882 | Q2 | PIT Q2 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAC -0.5 | 48.5 | 10304761 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BAL -5.5 | 52.5 | 7213569 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–35 |
2024 · Week 9 |
CIN -7.5 | 44.5 | 14274165 | Q4 | CIN Q3 | 24–41 |
2024 · Week 8 |
CIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 7204154 | Q4 | PHI Q2 Late over |
37–17 |
2024 · Week 7 |
CIN -5.5 | 42.5 | 7132735 | U | CIN Q3 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 6 |
CIN -4.5 | 45.5 | 771724 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
17–7 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CIN -5.5 | 47.5 | 7355258 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
CIN -7.5 | 46.5 | 14344871 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 38–33 |
2024 · Week 2 |
KC -6.5 | 47.5 | 6263951 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Lead lost |
25–26 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CIN -7.5 | 40.5 | 0102026 | U | NE Q1 | 16–10 |
CIN
PIT
DEN
CLE
TEN
DAL
LAC
BAL
LV
PHI
NYG
CAR
WSH
KC
NEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 6
Q2 24% 4
Q3 12% 2
Q4 18% 3
OT 12% 2
The team leading at halftime won 81% and covered 88% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 87% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 25% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.