When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Chicago Bears · pick one to list those games
41% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Chicago Bears · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
GB -10.5 | 41.5 | 10272746 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
24–22 |
2024 · Week 17 |
SEA -4.5 | 42.5 | 3999 | U | CHI Q1 | 6–3 |
2024 · Week 16 |
DET -6.5 | 47.5 | 13415151 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 34–17 |
2024 · Week 15 |
MIN -6.5 | 43.5 | 10132342 | U | MIN Q1 | 12–30 |
2024 · Week 14 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 14243051 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 13–38 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DET -10 | 48.5 | 3163043 | U | CHI Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIN -2.5 | 39.5 | 724345457 | Q4 | MIN OT | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10173339 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
20–19 |
2024 · Week 10 |
CHI -6.5 | 37.5 | 3161622 | U | NE Q1 | 19–3 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ARI -1.5 | 44.5 | 7303338 | U | ARI Q1 | 9–29 |
2024 · Week 8 |
WSH -1.5 | 46.5 | 691933 | U | WSH Q1 | 15–18 |
2024 · Week 6 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 3173151 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 16–35 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CHI -3.5 | 39.5 | 14344046 | Q3 | CHI Q2 | 10–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CHI -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162642 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 18–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
IND -2.5 | 43.5 | 071737 | U | IND Q2 | 16–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
HOU -6.5 | 45.5 | 6262632 | U | CHI Q1 Late cover flip |
13–19 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CHI -4.5 | 42.5 | 7202741 | U | CHI Q4 | 17–24 |
CHI
GB
SEA
DET
MIN
SF
NE
ARI
WSH
JAX
CAR
LAR
IND
HOU
TENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 24% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 12% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 76% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 76% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.