When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Atlanta Falcons · pick one to list those games
41% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Atlanta Falcons · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | 641557682 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 17 |
WSH -3.5 | 46.5 | 1424314854 | Q4 | WSH OT Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ATL -9.5 | 43.5 | 0243841 | U | ATL Q2 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ATL -5.5 | 43.5 | 7121524 | U | ATL Q1 | 15–9 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 14244263 | Q4 | MIN Q4 | 21–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAC -0.5 | 47.5 | 10163030 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–13 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 10273444 | U | DEN Q1 | 6–38 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ATL -4.5 | 47.5 | 0243737 | U | NO Q1 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ATL -3.5 | 51.5 | 10243448 | U | ATL Q1 | 21–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
ATL -0.5 | 47.5 | 14414857 | Q3 | ATL Q2 | 31–26 |
2024 · Week 7 |
ATL -2.5 | 51.5 | 3243848 | U | SEA Q1 | 34–14 |
2024 · Week 6 |
ATL -6.5 | 45.5 | 14394858 | Q3 | ATL Q3 | 38–20 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 42.5 | 14313750 | Q4 | NO Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 3 |
KC -3.5 | 46.5 | 7273639 | U | KC Q3 | 22–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
PHI -5.5 | 46.5 | 0132543 | U | ATL Q1 Lead lost |
22–21 |
2024 · Week 1 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 6192528 | U | PIT Q1 | 18–10 |
CAR
ATL
WSH
NYG
LV
MIN
LAC
DEN
NO
DAL
TB
SEA
KC
PHI
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 8
Q2 18% 3
Q3 12% 2
Q4 12% 2
OT 12% 2
The team leading at halftime won 65% and covered 59% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.