When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Arizona Cardinals · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 11% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Arizona Cardinals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 0101622 | U | ARI Q3 | 9–13 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ARI -5.5 | 47.5 | 737436066 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 30–36 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ARI -5.5 | 46.5 | 10161947 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over |
17–30 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ARI -3.5 | 45.5 | 24344548 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
30–18 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ARI -1.5 | 46.5 | 0101622 | U | SEA Q1 | 6–16 |
2024 · Week 10 |
NYJ -1.5 | 46.5 | 17303737 | U | ARI Q1 | 6–31 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ARI -1.5 | 44.5 | 7303338 | U | ARI Q1 | 9–29 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIA -4.5 | 46.5 | 10203855 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAC -1.5 | 44.5 | 0131632 | U | ARI Q4 | 15–17 |
2024 · Week 6 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 7344447 | Q4 | GB Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 17333647 | U | ARI Q4 Lead lost |
24–23 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ARI -3.5 | 48.5 | 14244156 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 42–14 |
2024 · Week 3 |
DET -2.5 | 51.5 | 14303033 | U | DET Q2 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ARI -1.5 | 47.5 | 14274451 | Q4 | ARI Q1 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 1 |
BUF -6.5 | 45.5 | 7274162 | Q4 | ARI Q4 | 28–34 |
SF
ARI
LAR
CAR
NE
SEA
MIN
NYJ
CHI
MIA
LAC
GB
WSH
DET
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 6% 1
Q3 12% 2
Q4 24% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 82% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 76% and covered 71% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.