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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Longwood @ ETSU

Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
#218LONGLongwood
@
#173ETSUETSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LONGThis seasonETSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 77–71 · win probability ETSU 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

LONG 1, ETSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8; ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0
ETSUBig
Three-pointers
LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%; ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 34.8% and 37.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LONG plays 71.5 a game (54th fastest), ETSU 67.0 (279th). Faster games mean more points
LONGSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LONG 34.6%, ETSU 28.3%. Defensive: LONG 72.3%, ETSU 72.1%
ETSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LONG 19.2%, ETSU 15.2%. Forced: LONG 19.7%, ETSU 18.4%
ETSUSmall
Home court
ETSU at home. This season: ETSU 0-0 at home, LONG 0-0 away
Even
LONG offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LONG has played the 330th-hardest schedule, ETSU the 309th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LONG 41.4, ETSU 35.0. Allowed: LONG 42.1, ETSU 36.4
Even
ETSU offense vs LONG defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LONG 28%, ETSU 29%. Transfers in: LONG 6, ETSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelETSU -6.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model147.9
Model edge—
Projected score
LONG 70.7 · ETSU 77.2
Win probability
ETSU 72%
1st half
Spread
ETSU -3.8
Total
69.2
Projected score
LONG 32.7 · ETSU 36.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: Longwood 3, ETSU 1, even 1
LongwoodBetterETSU
G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65
LONGBig
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47
Even
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44
LONGSmall
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64
LONGBig
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
ETSUSmall
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
LongwoodBetterETSU
LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7
Even
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4
Even
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players
LONGBig
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestLONG betterETSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Longwood
Guards
M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR
Forwards
D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LONGETSU
Scoring
75.9 #143Points per game76.8 #121
1.07 #215Points per possession1.15 #59
71.5 #54Pace (possessions)67.0 #279
Shooting
49.7 #254Effective FG%55.3 #33
31.4 #3093-point %34.7 #132
34.8 #2793-point attempt rate37.8 #216
41.4 #40Free throw rate35.0 #180
Possessions
19.2 #327Turnover rate15.2 #79
34.6 #57Offensive rebound rate28.3 #252
12.2 #270Assists per game13.9 #154
Defense
76.2 #223Points allowed70.1 #61
1.06 #113Points allowed per possession1.04 #77
53.8 #293Opponent effective FG%51.0 #161
33.8 #171Opponent 3-point %32.9 #110
19.7 #31Turnovers forced18.4 #79
72.3 #58Defensive rebound rate72.1 #64
8.3 #28Steals per game8.6 #16
2.0 #347Blocks per game3.3 #180
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
  • Wvs Radford90–74
  • W@ Charleston So107–96
  • L@ Presbyterian65–72
  • Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.