Grambling Tigers vs Northern Illinois Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 AM ETRock Hill Sports & Event Center · Neutral site

#338GRAMGrambling87final

Final

#334NIUN Illinois89▲ winner

Closing lineNIU -8.5✓ GRAM covered by 6.5

Closing total139.5Over by 36.5

Season records: Grambling and N Illinois
GRAM	This season	NIU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GRAM 70–70 NIU · ✓ NIU (52%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GRAM	36	51	87
NIU	43	46	89

1st half: GRAM 36, NIU 43 (NIU by 7). The model had NIU by 0.3 and a total of 65.4 (actual 79).

Team stats

GRAM		NIU
32-50 64%	Field goals	28-60 47%
5-13 38%	3-pointers	14-31 45%
20-29 69%	Free throws	17-22 77%
28 5 off	Rebounds	27 10 off
15	Assists	16
4	Steals	7
4	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	8
20	Fouls	20
48	Points in paint	28
10	Fast-break points	9

Players

GRAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dwayne Pierce G	31	19	0	8	8-15	1-3
Brandon Hardy G	29	2	2	1	1-2	0-1
Isaiah Miranda F	22	29	8	0	10-12	4-5
Antonio Shannon G	21	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Hassan Washington F	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Howard G	31	13	1	4	4-8	0-1
Antoine Shannon G	29	11	7	0	4-6	0-1
Chancellor Perkins G	16	1	4	0	0-0	0-0
Mekhi Fitts F	15	12	1	1	4-4	0-0

Did not play: Grigorije Avramovic, Colin Byrd, Tyler Bey, Imoh Erims, AJ Barnes, Kyle Layton

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trevor Polite G	31	15	5	1	5-6	2-3
Max Weisbrod G	31	11	2	8	3-9	2-6
David Douglas Jr. G	30	12	4	0	4-10	2-4
Colin Hardrick G	22	8	4	0	3-11	1-5
Brayden Gross F	18	11	2	3	3-4	0-0
Bench
Bennett Basich G	20	6	1	1	2-6	1-3
Nino Carter-Smith G	18	13	2	2	4-4	3-3
Keller Hanson G	11	5	3	1	2-4	1-3
Tolu Samuels F	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Jack Daugherty F	9	6	1	0	2-5	2-4

Did not play: Nathan Ramus, Izaya Larthridge, Cal Klesmit, Uzziah Buntyn, Mykolas Ivanauskas, Akiva McBirney-Griffin

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -5.5

3 → NIU

CloseNIU -8.5

3 pts toward NIU

Total

Open147.5

▼ 8

Close139.5

Down 8 since the open

Moneyline

GRAM -375 · NIU +295

Line movement

Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened NIU -5.5 · closed NIU -8.5 · moved 3 toward NIUmodel NIU -0.5

model NIU -0.5

Oct 31line modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (the sportsbooks’ median). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at tip-off

GRAM +8.5Spread

NIU -8.5

Bets

66%34%

Money

43%57%

Money leans NIU -8.5 · 23 pts more of the money than of the bets

GRAMWinner

NIU

Bets

93%

Money

13%87%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before tip-off. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	GRAM	NIU	Over	Under	GRAM	NIU
BetMGMMGM	—	—	137.5-115	137.5-105	+290	-375
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-8.5-115	+8.5-105	137.5-110	137.5-110	+310	-390
BetRiversBetRivers	-8.5-114	+8.5-109	141.5-103	141.5-124	+310	-435
BovadaBovada	-8.5-110	+8.5-110	138.5-110	138.5-110	+305	-410
DraftKingsDK	-8.5-112	+8.5-108	138.5-108	138.5-112	+310	-395
FanDuelFD	-7.5-102	+7.5-120	140.5-110	140.5-110	+275	-350
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-8.5-111	+8.5-101	137.5-108	137.5-108	+310	-390

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NIU -8.5	NIU -0.7	GRAM +7.8	W GRAM covered
Total	139.5	139.6	Over 0.1	W Over
Projected score	—	GRAM 69.5 · NIU 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIU -0.3	NIU -7.0
1H total	65.4	79
1H projected score	GRAM 32.5 · NIU 32.8	GRAM 36 · NIU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GRAM LLWWL	15-16	48%	3-1	8-7
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	—	2-3

Venue/role: GRAM neutral site, as underdog; NIU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GRAM UUUUU	10-21	32%	12-19
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GRAM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grambling

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1648%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

O U U U U O U U O O U U O U O U U U U U U O U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@ISU	L 62-102	+33.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 9	@HOW	W 73-70	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsUSM	W 75-70	-2.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	@USD	L 68-78	+6.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	@CBU	L 59-72	+14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 24	@UCR	L 74-83	+3.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 2	@TULN	L 63-65	+11.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 8	@USM	L 60-68	+8.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 18	vsNORF	W 80-68	+1.5	W +13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsHAMP	W 81-72	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 153
Dec 23	@OSU	L 63-89	+28.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 3	vsPV	W 76-72	-7.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 148
Jan 5	vsTXSO	W 84-67	-5.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	@BCU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 12	@FAMU	L 84-91	-1.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsSOU	L 53-71	-1.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 124
Jan 31	@JKST	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	@ALCN	W 74-50	-5.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 4	vsUAPB	L 64-67	-6.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 131
Feb 7	vsALST	W 57-47	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 104
Feb 9	vsAAMU	L 58-66	-4.5	L −12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@TXSO	L 79-82	+1.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	@PV	L 63-68	-1.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 131
Feb 21	@SOU	L 73-87	+5.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 160
Feb 23	vsMVSU	W 83-62	-16.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 26	vsBCU	L 71-76	-1.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 147
Feb 28	vsFAMU	L 59-66	-4.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	@AAMU	L 63-77	+2.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	@ALST	W 65-63	+2.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 9	vsMVSU	W 77-52	-13.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 129
Mar 10	vsJKST	L 65-68	-7.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

−6.5

HOW

W 73-70

+7.5

USM

W 75-70

+2.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

+1.5

UCR

L 74-83

−5.5

TULN

L 63-65

+9.5

USM

L 60-68

+0.5

NORF

W 80-68

+13.5

HAMP

W 81-72

+10.5

OSU

L 63-89

+2.5

W 76-72

−3.5

TXSO

W 84-67

+11.5

BCU

L 65-74

−5.5

FAMU

L 84-91

−8.5

SOU

L 53-71

−19.5

JKST

W 69-66

+0.5

ALCN

W 74-50

+18.5

UAPB

L 64-67

−9.5

ALST

W 57-47

+5.5

AAMU

L 58-66

−12.5

TXSO

L 79-82

−1.5

L 63-68

−6.5

SOU

L 73-87

−8.5

MVSU

W 83-62

+4.5

BCU

L 71-76

−6.5

FAMU

L 59-66

−11.5

AAMU

L 63-77

−11.5

ALST

W 65-63

+4.5

MVSU

W 77-52

+11.5

JKST

L 65-68

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

+19.5

HOW

W 73-70

−9.5

USM

W 75-70

−3.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

−13.5

UCR

L 74-83

+12.5

TULN

L 63-65

−20.5

USM

L 60-68

−14.5

NORF

W 80-68

+12.5

HAMP

W 81-72

+15.5

OSU

L 63-89

−1.5

W 76-72

−7.5

TXSO

W 84-67

+4.5

BCU

L 65-74

−5.5

FAMU

L 84-91

+33.5

SOU

L 53-71

−29.5

JKST

W 69-66

−13.5

ALCN

W 74-50

−19.5

UAPB

L 64-67

−14.5

ALST

W 57-47

−40.5

AAMU

L 58-66

−12.5

TXSO

L 79-82

+21.5

L 63-68

−20.5

SOU

L 73-87

+17.5

MVSU

W 83-62

+8.5

BCU

L 71-76

+2.5

FAMU

L 59-66

−15.5

AAMU

L 63-77

−0.5

ALST

W 65-63

−16.5

MVSU

W 77-52

−6.5

JKST

L 65-68

−6.5

over 10under 21avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.