Eastern Michigan Eagles at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETThe HTC Center · at Coastal

LineCCU -1.5moved 3 toward CCU

Total141.5down 2 from 143.5

Season records: E Michigan and Coastal
EMU	This season	CCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EMU 73–71 · win probability EMU 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

CCU -1.5

moved 3 toward CCU

Total

141.5

model 143.6 · Over by 2

Model edge

EMU by 3.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CCU has more of the edges

EMU 1, CCU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

EMU has played the 157th-hardest schedule, CCU the 301st. A record against a soft schedule means less

EMUSmall

CCU offense vs EMU defense

Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 188th, on the model’s ratings

CCUSmall

Home court

CCU at home. This season: CCU 0-0 at home, EMU 0-0 away

CCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: EMU 29.3, CCU 32.3. Allowed: EMU 35.5, CCU 34.9

Even

EMU offense vs CCU defense

Offense 206th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

EMU hits 32.4% and allows 32.9%; CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 31.8% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: EMU plays 68.9 a game (190th fastest), CCU 69.9 (121st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EMU 37%, CCU 21%. Transfers in: EMU 4, CCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: EMU 49.6 and allows 50.3; CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EMU 17.5%, CCU 15.3%. Forced: EMU 15.5%, CCU 12.3%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EMU 27.8%, CCU 26.9%. Defensive: EMU 70.9%, CCU 72.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	1938	56%	51%	49%
Non-conference games at this spread	1094	54%	49%	50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenEMU -1.5

3 → CCU

NowCCU -1.5

3 pts toward CCU

Total

Open143.5

▼ 2

Now141.5

Down 2 since the open

Moneyline

EMU -122 · CCU +102

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened EMU -1.5 · now CCU -1 · moved 2.5 toward CCUmodel EMU -2

model EMU -2

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	EMU	CCU	Over	Under	EMU	CCU
BetMGMMGM	-1.5-120	+1.5+100	142.5-105	142.5-115	-105	-115
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1-115	+1-105	142-110	142-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+0.5-125	-0.5-103	143.5+100	143.5-127	-125	-103
BetUSBetUS	-1-115	+1-105	142-110	142-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-1-110	+1-110	142-105	142-115	-105	-115
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-125	+1.5+105	141.5-112	141.5-108	-105	-115
FanDuelFD	-1.5-120	+1.5-102	142.5-114	142.5-106	-110	-111
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-1-111	+1-101	142-108	142-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	CCU -1.5	EMU -2.1	EMU +3.6
Total	141.5	143.6	Over 2.1
Projected score	—	EMU 72.8 · CCU 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	EMU -1.4	—
1H total	67.2	—
1H projected score	EMU 34.3 · CCU 32.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLLWL	20-10	67%	11-6	16-6
CCU LWWWL	18-13	58%	7-5	6-6

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; CCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UOUUO	9-21	30%	9-21
CCU UOOUO	17-14	55%	18-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	1-9 10%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
CCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ XAV	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs DETM	W72–62WU
Nov 21	vs DEN	No recent meeting

Coastal

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ DUKE	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs UPST	L78–85LO
Nov 15	@ WIS	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Michigan

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

W L L W W L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1067%

W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O U U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGAST	W 71-49	-3.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 10	@PITT	L 66-78	+15.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 14	vsIUIN	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@DETM	W 72-62	+1.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	vsOAK	W 97-91	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	@LOU	L 46-87	+33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 133
Nov 26	@CIN	W 64-56	+22.5	W +30.5	146.5	U 120
Nov 28	vsNJIT	W 73-55	-14.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 2	@BTLR	L 68-84	+17.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 10	@PFW	L 65-80	+3.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 19	@AKR	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 165
Dec 22	@WRST	L 64-70	+10.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 30	vsMASS	W 80-74	+2.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsOHIO	L 67-68	+2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	@BALL	W 74-52	+1.5	W +23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@WMU	L 62-79	-1.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsNIU	W 77-59	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	@BGSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsKENT	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 27	@CMU	L 65-100	-2.5	L −37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	@MASS	L 67-70	+8.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsAKR	L 64-66	+12.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 130
Feb 7	@APP	L 60-65	+7.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 125
Feb 11	@KENT	L 91-95	+10.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 186
Feb 14	vsWMU	L 62-76	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsCMU	W 66-54	-4.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	@TOL	L 75-94	+8.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsM-OH	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@BUF	L 67-72	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 6	vsBGSU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

+18.5

PITT

L 66-78

+3.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−11.5

DETM

W 72-62

+11.5

OAK

W 97-91

+7.5

LOU

L 46-87

−7.5

CIN

W 64-56

+30.5

NJIT

W 73-55

+3.5

BTLR

L 68-84

+1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−11.5

AKR

L 72-93

−5.5

WRST

L 64-70

+4.5

MASS

W 80-74

+8.5

OHIO

L 67-68

+1.5

BALL

W 74-52

+23.5

WMU

L 62-79

−18.5

NIU

W 77-59

+10.5

BGSU

L 79-85

+5.5

KENT

L 75-76

+3.5

CMU

L 65-100

−37.5

MASS

L 67-70

+5.5

AKR

L 64-66

+10.5

APP

L 60-65

+2.5

KENT

L 91-95

+6.5

WMU

L 62-76

−20.5

CMU

W 66-54

+7.5

TOL

L 75-94

−10.5

M-OH

L 64-74

−1.5

BUF

L 67-72

+0.5

BGSU

L 69-77

−2.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

−29.5

PITT

L 66-78

+2.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−13.5

DETM

W 72-62

−23.5

OAK

W 97-91

+34.5

LOU

L 46-87

−29.5

CIN

W 64-56

−26.5

NJIT

W 73-55

−13.5

BTLR

L 68-84

−1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−2.5

AKR

L 72-93

+9.5

WRST

L 64-70

−8.5

MASS

W 80-74

+5.5

OHIO

L 67-68

−15.5

BALL

W 74-52

−11.5

WMU

L 62-79

−4.5

NIU

W 77-59

−5.5

BGSU

L 79-85

+22.5

KENT

L 75-76

−3.5

CMU

L 65-100

+25.5

MASS

L 67-70

−11.5

AKR

L 64-66

−23.5

APP

L 60-65

−6.5

KENT

L 91-95

+40.5

WMU

L 62-76

−5.5

CMU

W 66-54

−20.5

TOL

L 75-94

+23.5

M-OH

L 64-74

−13.5

BUF

L 67-72

−4.5

BGSU

L 69-77

+3.5

over 9under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coastal

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U O O U O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsGAST	L 71-89	-6.5	L −24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsODU	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	vsAPP	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 14	@MRSH	W 85-83	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	@GASO	W 79-75	+6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsTXST	W 72-70	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	vsUSM	W 85-67	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	@USA	L 48-53	+3.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 101
Feb 1	@ULM	W 83-79	-10.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsARST	L 66-70	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsMASS	W 94-91	+2.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 12	@UL	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 18	vsJMU	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsMRSH	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	@GAST	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	@JMU	W 69-68	+6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsGASO	L 72-96	-1.5	L −25.5	151.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

GAST

L 71-89

−24.5

ODU

L 66-70

−8.5

APP

W 67-62

+6.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+11.5

GASO

W 79-75

+10.5

TXST

W 72-70

+0.5

USM

W 85-67

+15.5

USA

L 48-53

−1.5

ULM

W 83-79

−6.5

ARST

L 66-70

+0.5

MASS

W 94-91

+5.5

W 69-65

+2.5

JMU

L 65-67

−0.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+6.5

GAST

W 76-71

+3.5

JMU

W 69-68

+7.5

GASO

L 72-96

−25.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

GAST

L 71-89

+11.5

ODU

L 66-70

−15.5

APP

W 67-62

−4.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+16.5

GASO

W 79-75

−3.5

TXST

W 72-70

+1.5

USM

W 85-67

+10.5

USA

L 48-53

−38.5

ULM

W 83-79

+15.5

ARST

L 66-70

−15.5

MASS

W 94-91

+37.5

W 69-65

+1.5

JMU

L 65-67

−8.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+0.5

GAST

W 76-71

+5.5

JMU

W 69-68

−4.5

GASO

L 72-96

+16.5

over 17under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: E Michigan 2, Coastal 1, even 2

E MichiganBetterCoastal

G J. Fitzpatrick TR15.4 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 75

EMUBig

G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15

G E. Richards TR9.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 32

Even

G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

G B. Green4.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 9

CCUSmall

G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F M. Habhab14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 64

EMUSmall

G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31

F K. Brockhoff TR10.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 44

Even

F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44

E MichiganBetterCoastal

EMU offense206th of 366 · -6.3

Even

CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5

EMU defense188th of 366 · -4.4

EMUSmall

CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

EMUSmall

Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.1 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.3 · 2 players

EMUSmall

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestEMU betterCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Michigan

Guards

J. Fitzpatrick36 min · TRE. Richards27 min · TRB. Green20 minG. Lawson18 minS. Harris17 min · TRD. PorterNew

Forwards

M. Habhab36 minK. Brockhoff22 min · TRK. JohnsonNewJ. WrightNewO. SuleimanNew

Coastal

Guards

T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew

Forwards

A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew

Centers

C. Middleton10 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EMU70.2 #282

CCU71.8 #251

Points per possession

EMU1.02 #298

CCU1.03 #290

Pace (possessions)

EMU68.9 #190

CCU69.9 #121

Shooting

Effective FG%

EMU49.6 #264

CCU47.9 #314

3-point %

EMU32.4 #259

CCU33.5 #196

3-point attempt rate

EMU31.8 #332

CCU43.1 #113

Free throw rate

EMU29.3 #325

CCU32.3 #254

Possessions

Turnover rate

EMU17.5 #235

CCU15.3 #84

Offensive rebound rate

EMU27.8 #273

CCU26.9 #296

Assists per game

EMU12.4 #261

CCU9.9 #359

Defense

Points allowed

EMU74.4 #169

CCU73.5 #143

Points allowed per possession

EMU1.07 #142

CCU1.05 #88

Opponent effective FG%

EMU50.3 #115

CCU46.8 #18

Opponent 3-point %

EMU32.9 #111

CCU32.8 #105

Turnovers forced

EMU15.5 #249

CCU12.3 #364

Defensive rebound rate

EMU70.9 #109

CCU72.4 #52

Steals per game

EMU5.7 #269

CCU4.3 #360

Blocks per game

EMU4.1 #61

CCU3.2 #187

EMU		CCU
Scoring
70.2 #282	Points per game	71.8 #251
1.02 #298	Points per possession	1.03 #290
68.9 #190	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #121
Shooting
49.6 #264	Effective FG%	47.9 #314
32.4 #259	3-point %	33.5 #196
31.8 #332	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #113
29.3 #325	Free throw rate	32.3 #254
Possessions
17.5 #235	Turnover rate	15.3 #84
27.8 #273	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #296
12.4 #261	Assists per game	9.9 #359
Defense
74.4 #169	Points allowed	73.5 #143
1.07 #142	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #88
50.3 #115	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #18
32.9 #111	Opponent 3-point %	32.8 #105
15.5 #249	Turnovers forced	12.3 #364
70.9 #109	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #52
5.7 #269	Steals per game	4.3 #360
4.1 #61	Blocks per game	3.2 #187

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Michigan

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bowling Green69–77
L@ Buffalo67–72
Lvs Miami OH64–74
L@ Toledo75–94
Wvs C Michigan66–54

A week or more of rest.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern72–96
W@ James Madison69–68
W@ Georgia St76–71
Wvs Marshall79–75
Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.