Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
JMU -2.5✓ USM covered by 8.5
JMU -2.5✓ USM covered by 8.5Closing total143.5Over by 22.5
| JMU | This season | USM |
|---|---|---|
| 17-14 | Record | 14-15 |
| 13-18 | ATS | 14-15 |
| 14-17 | O/U | 16-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: JMU 74–73 USM · ✗ JMU (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 33 | 47 | 80 |
| USM | 35 | 51 | 86 |
1st half: JMU 33, USM 35 (USM by 2). The model had JMU by 0.7 and a total of 68.9 (actual 68).
Team stats
| JMU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-58 52% | Field goals | 27-60 45% |
| 4-16 25% | 3-pointers | 4-11 36% |
| 16-23 70% | Free throws | 28-34 82% |
| 32 7 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 9 | Assists | 10 |
| 3 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| JMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Davis G | 36 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-5 |
| Justin McBride F | 31 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1-9 | 0-2 |
| Preston Fowler F | 29 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Gabe Newhof F | 20 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Kose Egbule G | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bradley Douglas G | 31 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7-13 | 1-4 |
| Eddie Ricks III F | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Christian Brown F | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Wilborn F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Josh Stephen, Chance Lundy, Paul Jones III, Paul Lewis, Justin Taylor, Ike Cornish
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 40 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 8-16 | 2-2 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 30 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 7-17 | 0-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Djahi Binet F | 23 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chiante' Tramble G | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Curt Lewis G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Brewer Carruth, Dalyn Brandon, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketJMU -2.5
ModelJMU -0.9
Model edgeUSM +1.6
W USM covered
Total
Market143.5
Model147.2
Model edgeOver 3.7
W Over
Projected score
JMU 74.1 · USM 73.1
JMU 80 · USM 86
Win probability
JMU 53%
1st half
Spread
JMU -0.7
USM -2.0
Total
68.9
68 points
Projected score
JMU 34.8 · USM 34.1
JMU 33 · USM 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenJMU -1.5
1 → JMU
CloseJMU -2.5
1 pt toward JMU
Total
Open144.5
▼ 1
Close143.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
JMU -135 · USM +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened JMU -1.5 · closed JMU -2.5 · moved 1 toward JMUmodel JMU -1
model JMU -1
Opened 144.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 1 downmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| USM | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
JMU 1–3 USMUSM leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · JMU 0-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | JMU 65 @ USM 73 | USM -1.5 | USM W |
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | USM 72 @ JMU 83 | JMU -11.5 | USM W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | JMU 71 @ USM 81 | USM +7.5 | USM W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | JMU 70 @ USM 83 | USM -1.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
James Madison
31 games played
Straight up
17-14
55% wins
Against the spread
13-18
42% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ AKR | L 71-85 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 9 | vs COPP | W 84-70 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 12 | @ LONG | L 72-82 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 15 | @ LIU | L 79-88 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 18 | vs TOW | W 81-75 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | @ FIU | W 80-72 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs OMA | W 88-77 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 29 | @ GMU | L 66-82 | +12.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCCU | W 67-62 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 6 | vs NORF | W 68-67 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 138.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 17 | @ ODU | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | @ GASO | L 92-96 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 29 | @ ARK | L 74-103 | +23.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARST | W 78-74 | +10.5 | W +14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs MRSH | L 64-66 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vsODU | W 70-69 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 15 | @ APP | L 65-80 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 133.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 17 | @MRSH | L 72-77 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 22 | vs USA | L 83-90 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 24 | vs TXST | W 82-57 | -5.5 | W +19.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | @ TROY | W 73-64 | +9.5 | W +18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | @USM | L 65-73 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | vs UL | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 132.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 7 | vs TOL | W 73-71 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 12 | vs GAST | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 14 | vsAPP | W 69-58 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | U 127 |
| Feb 18 | @ CCU | W 67-65 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 21 | @GAST | W 80-65 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 25 | vsGASO | W 82-66 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 27 | vsCCU | L 68-69 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 4 | vsUL | W 87-72 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 134.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@AKR
AKRL 71-85
−5.5
9
vsCOPP
COPPW 84-70
−4.5
12
@LONG
LONGL 72-82
−11.5
15
@LIU
LIUL 79-88
−5.5
18
vsTOW
TOWW 81-75
+9.5
24
@FIU
FIUW 80-72
+10.5
25
vsOMA
OMAW 88-77
+9.5
29
@GMU
GMUL 66-82
−3.5
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 67-62
−9.5
6
vsNORF
NORFW 68-67
−9.5
17
@ODU
ODUL 68-77
−11.5
20
@GASO
GASOL 92-96
−1.5
29
@ARK
ARKL 74-103
−5.5
3
@ARST
ARSTW 78-74
+14.5
7
vsMRSH
MRSHL 64-66
−3.5
10
vsODU
ODUW 70-69
−5.5
15
@APP
APPL 65-80
−12.5
17
@MRSH
MRSHL 72-77
+1.5
22
vsUSA
USAL 83-90
−11.5
24
vsTXST
TXSTW 82-57
+19.5
29
@TROY
TROYW 73-64
+18.5
31
@USM
USML 65-73
−6.5
4
vsUL
ULL 61-64
−12.5
7
vsTOL
TOLW 73-71
+3.5
12
vsGAST
GASTW 81-79
−3.5
14
vsAPP
APPW 69-58
+12.5
18
@CCU
CCUW 67-65
+0.5
21
@GAST
GASTW 80-65
+12.5
25
vsGASO
GASOW 82-66
+10.5
27
vsCCU
CCUL 68-69
−7.5
4
vsUL
ULW 87-72
+8.5
covered 13didn’t cover 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@AKR
AKRL 71-85
+2.5
9
vsCOPP
COPPW 84-70
+12.5
12
@LONG
LONGL 72-82
+4.5
15
@LIU
LIUL 79-88
+19.5
18
vsTOW
TOWW 81-75
+15.5
24
@FIU
FIUW 80-72
−3.5
25
vsOMA
OMAW 88-77
+12.5
29
@GMU
GMUL 66-82
+6.5
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 67-62
−14.5
6
vsNORF
NORFW 68-67
−3.5
17
@ODU
ODUL 68-77
−3.5
20
@GASO
GASOL 92-96
+34.5
29
@ARK
ARKL 74-103
+17.5
3
@ARST
ARSTW 78-74
−6.5
7
vsMRSH
MRSHL 64-66
−22.5
10
vsODU
ODUW 70-69
−8.5
15
@APP
APPL 65-80
+11.5
17
@MRSH
MRSHL 72-77
−0.5
22
vsUSA
USAL 83-90
+34.5
24
vsTXST
TXSTW 82-57
−4.5
29
@TROY
TROYW 73-64
−10.5
31
@USM
USML 65-73
−5.5
4
vsUL
ULL 61-64
−7.5
7
vsTOL
TOLW 73-71
−9.5
12
vsGAST
GASTW 81-79
+15.5
14
vsAPP
APPW 69-58
−7.5
18
@CCU
CCUW 67-65
−8.5
21
@GAST
GASTW 80-65
+2.5
25
vsGASO
GASOW 82-66
−5.5
27
vsCCU
CCUL 68-69
−4.5
4
vsUL
ULW 87-72
+24.5
over 14under 17avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Miss
29 games played
Straight up
14-15
48% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vsUL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vsARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsTXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vsAPP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vsJMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs KENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vsUSA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsTROY | W 69-65 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | vsODU | W 86-81 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 24 | @ARST | L 84-89 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 27 | @USA | W 68-55 | +4.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
+9.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+0.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+4.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
+17.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
−10.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+19.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+14.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
−18.5
over 16under 13avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
James Madison
17-14 overall · 10-9 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisiana87–72
- Lvs Coastal68–69
- Wvs GA Southern82–66
- W@ Georgia St80–65
- W@ Coastal67–65
1 day since their last game.
Southern Miss
14-15 overall · 9-9 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ South Alabama68–55
- L@ Arkansas St84–89
- Wvs Old Dominion86–81
- Wvs Troy69–65
- Lvs South Alabama78–84
6 days since their last game.