Harrah's Cherokee Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
MER -1.5✓ WCU covered by 5.5
MER -1.5✓ WCU covered by 5.5Closing total154.5Under by 4.5
 WCU | This season | MER |
|---|---|---|
| 12-15 | Record | 16-12 |
| 12-15 | ATS | 19-9 |
| 15-12 | O/U | 14-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WCU 78–81 MER · ✗ MER (59%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCU | 36 | 41 | 77 |
| MER | 35 | 38 | 73 |
1st half: WCU 36, MER 35 (WCU by 1). The model had MER by 1.4 and a total of 74.4 (actual 71).
Team stats
| WCU | MER | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-69 39% | Field goals | 27-64 42% |
| 8-28 29% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 15-20 75% | Free throws | 11-19 58% |
| 53 25 off | Rebounds | 29 11 off |
| 10 | Assists | 10 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| WCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlan Pettway G | 37 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6-14 | 1-7 |
| Cord Stansberry G | 34 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
| Tidjiane Dioumassi G | 34 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 8-16 | 4-6 |
| Marcus Kell F | 28 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 5-14 | 2-6 |
| Samuel Dada F | 25 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Abdulai Fanta Kabba C | 15 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Tayeshaun Smith F | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Julien Soumaoro G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Justin Johnson F | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Williams, Chase McKey, Titian DeRosa, Fischer Brown, CJ Hyland, Vernon Collins Jr., Drew Hollifield
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Williams G | 36 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-7 |
| Baraka Okojie G | 36 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 9-21 | 2-5 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 34 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| Armani Mighty C | 33 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Quinton Perkins II G | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Connor Serven F | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tristan Gross, Jaydon Cole, Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Petras Padegimas, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, TJ Grant
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -1.5
ModelMER -2.6
Model edgeMER +1.1
L WCU covered
Total
Market154.5
Model159.2
Model edgeOver 4.7
L Under
Projected score
WCU 78.3 · MER 80.9
WCU 77 · MER 73
Win probability
MER 59%
1st half
Spread
MER -1.4
WCU -1.0
Total
74.4
71 points
Projected score
WCU 36.5 · MER 37.9
WCU 36 · MER 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -2.5
1 → WCU
CloseMER -1.5
1 pt toward WCU
Total
Open157.5
▼ 3
Close154.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
WCU +114 · MER -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -2.5 · closed MER -1.5 · moved 1 toward WCUmodel MER -2.5
model MER -2.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 3 downmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCU | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| MER | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22
WCU 7–5 MERWCU leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · WCU 9-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025-26 | MER 74 @ WCU 78 | WCU +1.5 | WCU W |
| Jan 21, 2025-26 | WCU 76 @ MER 88 | MER -8.5 | MER W |
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | WCU 66 vs MER 67 | MER -5.5 | WCU W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | WCU 69 @ MER 81 | MER -8.5 | MER W |
| Jan 12, 2024-25 | MER 82 @ WCU 85 | WCU +4.5 | WCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
W Carolina
27 games played
Straight up
12-15
44% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-12
56% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CIN | L 63-94 | +22.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | @ DUKE | L 54-95 | +36.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 16 | vs STET | W 76-65 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 19 | vs UNCA | W 80-73 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 22 | @ LIP | L 62-83 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 29 | @ HPU | L 73-93 | +16.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 6 | @ UPST | L 67-78 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 11 | @ VT | L 74-96 | +20.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 18 | @ UGA | L 82-112 | +32.5 | W +2.5 | 167.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 31 | vs WOF | L 74-79 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 3 | @ FUR | W 80-77 | +8.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 7 | @ SAM | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 10 | @ CIT | L 77-79 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 14 | vs ETSU | W 72-68 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 17 | vs UTC | L 82-90 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 21 | @MER | L 76-88 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | vs VMI | W 88-58 | -8.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 29 | @ETSU | W 90-88 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 1 | vsSAM | L 74-88 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | @ UNCG | L 78-81 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 7 | @WOF | L 66-77 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | vsCIT | W 87-49 | -9.5 | W +28.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | @UTC | W 81-76 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 18 | vsUNCG | W 91-77 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 21 | @VMI | W 81-62 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 25 | vsMER | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 28 | vsFUR | W 86-67 | +1.5 | W +20.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CIN
CINL 63-94
−8.5
8
@DUKE
DUKEL 54-95
−4.5
16
vsSTET
STETW 76-65
−1.5
19
vsUNCA
UNCAW 80-73
+8.5
22
@LIP
LIPL 62-83
−15.5
29
@HPU
HPUL 73-93
−3.5
6
@UPST
UPSTL 67-78
−8.5
11
@VT
VTL 74-96
−1.5
18
@UGA
UGAL 82-112
+2.5
31
vsWOF
WOFL 74-79
−2.5
3
@FUR
FURW 80-77
+11.5
7
@SAM
SAML 77-82
−0.5
10
@CIT
CITL 77-79
−8.5
14
vsETSU
ETSUW 72-68
+10.5
17
vsUTC
UTCL 82-90
−9.5
21
@MER
MERL 76-88
−3.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 88-58
+21.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUW 90-88
+11.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 74-88
−12.5
4
@UNCG
UNCGL 78-81
−4.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 66-77
−7.5
11
vsCIT
CITW 87-49
+28.5
14
@UTC
UTCW 81-76
+6.5
18
vsUNCG
UNCGW 91-77
+8.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 81-62
+10.5
25
vsMER
MERW 78-74
+5.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 86-67
+20.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CIN
CINL 63-94
+13.5
8
@DUKE
DUKEL 54-95
−3.5
16
vsSTET
STETW 76-65
−14.5
19
vsUNCA
UNCAW 80-73
+0.5
22
@LIP
LIPL 62-83
−6.5
29
@HPU
HPUL 73-93
+6.5
6
@UPST
UPSTL 67-78
−4.5
11
@VT
VTL 74-96
+17.5
18
@UGA
UGAL 82-112
+26.5
31
vsWOF
WOFL 74-79
−1.5
3
@FUR
FURW 80-77
−0.5
7
@SAM
SAML 77-82
+5.5
10
@CIT
CITL 77-79
+7.5
14
vsETSU
ETSUW 72-68
−7.5
17
vsUTC
UTCL 82-90
+21.5
21
@MER
MERL 76-88
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 88-58
−6.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUW 90-88
+32.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 74-88
+7.5
4
@UNCG
UNCGL 78-81
+3.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 66-77
−11.5
11
vsCIT
CITW 87-49
−9.5
14
@UTC
UTCW 81-76
+5.5
18
vsUNCG
UNCGW 91-77
+12.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 81-62
−11.5
25
vsMER
MERW 78-74
−4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 86-67
+5.5
over 15under 12avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mercer
28 games played
Straight up
16-12
57% wins
Against the spread
19-9
68% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-14
50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vsLIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCIT | W 101-63 | -16.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vsWOF | W 109-97 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 206 |
| Jan 15 | @VMI | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @UNCG | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | vsWCU | W 88-76 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | @WOF | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 29 | vsUNCG | W 95-77 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsVMI | W 95-81 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 5 | @UTC | L 75-79 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 7 | @SAM | L 49-69 | -1.5 | L −21.5 | 160.5 | U 118 |
| Feb 11 | vsFUR | W 69-64 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 14 | @CIT | W 70-54 | -11.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 19 | vsUTC | L 90-94 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 21 | vsSAM | W 89-86 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 156.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 25 | @WCU | L 74-78 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 28 | vsETSU | W 82-76 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+21.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+8.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
+1.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+4.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+3.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−5.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+7.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
−4.5
5
@UTC
UTCL 75-79
−8.5
7
@SAM
SAML 49-69
−21.5
11
vsFUR
FURW 69-64
+1.5
14
@CIT
CITW 70-54
+4.5
19
vsUTC
UTCL 90-94
−14.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 89-86
−0.5
25
@WCU
WCUL 74-78
−5.5
28
vsETSU
ETSUW 82-76
+4.5
covered 19didn’t cover 9avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+16.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+49.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
−9.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+38.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+5.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−0.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+13.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
+22.5
5
@UTC
UTCL 75-79
−1.5
7
@SAM
SAML 49-69
−42.5
11
vsFUR
FURW 69-64
−18.5
14
@CIT
CITW 70-54
−23.5
19
vsUTC
UTCL 90-94
+32.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 89-86
+18.5
25
@WCU
WCUL 74-78
−4.5
28
vsETSU
ETSUW 82-76
+8.5
over 14under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
W Carolina
12-15 overall · 10-8 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Furman86–67
- Wvs Mercer78–74
- W@ VMI81–62
- Wvs UNC Greensboro91–77
- W@ Chattanooga81–76
A week or more of rest.
Mercer
16-12 overall · 11-7 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs ETSU82–76
- L@ W Carolina74–78
- Wvs Samford89–86
- Lvs Chattanooga90–94
- W@ The Citadel70–54
A week or more of rest.