Southern Illinois Salukis at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 25, 4:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville · Conference game

LineSIU -2.5moved 1 toward EVAN

Total140.5down 2 from 142.5

Season records: S Illinois and Evansville
SIU	This season	EVAN
7-12	Record	3-15
8-11	ATS	8-10
6-13	O/U	7-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIU 75–70 · win probability SIU 67%

Line

SIU -2.5

moved 1 toward EVAN

Total

140.5

model 144.7 · Over by 4

Model edge

SIU by 2.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

SIU 5, EVAN 2 · 2025-26 so far

SIUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SIU 30.9%, EVAN 22.0%. Defensive: SIU 72.7%, EVAN 69.8%

SIUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SIU 17.1%, EVAN 19.1%. Forced: SIU 18.5%, EVAN 15.4%

SIUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SIU 49.1 and allows 49.0; EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1

SIUBig

Three-pointers

SIU hits 27.8% and allows 30.4%; EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 29.2% and 43.1% of their shots

SIUSmall

EVAN offense vs SIU defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 181st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SIU plays 70.6 a game (91st fastest), EVAN 67.9 (232nd). Faster games mean more points

EVANSmall

Home court

EVAN at home. This season: EVAN 1-7 at home, SIU 2-8 away

EVANSmall

Rest

SIU 4 days since its last game, EVAN 5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SIU 1-4 ATS, margin -5.2; EVAN 2-3 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SIU 22%, EVAN 35%. Transfers in: SIU 0, EVAN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SIU 31.3, EVAN 29.8. Allowed: SIU 31.4, EVAN 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

SIU has played the 139th-hardest schedule, EVAN the 127th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

SIU offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 227th of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of under 3	1412	54%	50%	50%
Conference games at this spread	2832	55%	51%	49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog	4513	74%	51%	50%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	SIU -2.5	SIU -4.9	SIU +2.4
Total	140.5	144.7	Over 4.2
Projected score	—	SIU 74.8 · EVAN 69.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIU -3.1	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	SIU 35.4 · EVAN 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIU WLLLL	8-11	42%	5-5	3-5
EVAN LLWWL	8-10	44%	3-5	7-7

Venue/role: SIU away, as favorite; EVAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIU UUOUU	6-13	32%	7-12
EVAN UUUOU	7-11	39%	3-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
EVAN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

SIU 6–1 EVANSIU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · SIU 3-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2024-25	SIU 68 @ EVAN 59	EVAN -1.5	SIU W
Jan 1, 2024-25	EVAN 68 @ SIU 53	SIU -7.5	EVAN W
Feb 25, 2023-24	SIU 65 @ EVAN 53	EVAN +3.5	SIU W
Jan 17, 2022-23	EVAN 70 @ SIU 77	SIU -17.5	EVAN W
Nov 30, 2022-23	SIU 80 @ EVAN 53	EVAN +8.5	SIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Illinois

19 games played

Straight up

7-12

37% wins

Against the spread

8-11

42% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-13

32% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1237%

W L L W L L W W W L L L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-1142%

W W L W L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-1332%

O O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsKC	W 101-78	-12.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 12	@NEV	L 81-86	+11.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 17	@NDSU	L 85-92	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 23	vsDEL	W 79-59	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsUAB	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 26	@MEM	L 58-74	+10.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 132
Nov 29	vsLR	W 74-65	-13.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@HPU	W 86-84	+9.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsUTM	W 83-54	-8.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	@RICH	L 84-93	+3.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 18	vsILST	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	@BRAD	L 69-73	+6.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 29	@MUR	L 81-84	+6.5	W +3.5	165.5	U 165
Jan 1	vsVAL	W 75-70	-7.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 4	@BEL	W 68-67	+6.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 7	@UIC	L 57-70	-1.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 14	vsDRKE	L 73-76	-5.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	vsBEL	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 21	@VAL	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 101-78

+10.5

NEV

L 81-86

+6.5

NDSU

L 85-92

−5.5

DEL

W 79-59

+11.5

UAB

L 73-81

−5.5

MEM

L 58-74

−5.5

W 74-65

−4.5

HPU

W 86-84

+11.5

UTM

W 83-54

+20.5

RICH

L 84-93

−5.5

ILST

L 68-75

−8.5

BRAD

L 69-73

+2.5

MUR

L 81-84

+3.5

VAL

W 75-70

−2.5

BEL

W 68-67

+7.5

UIC

L 57-70

−14.5

DRKE

L 73-76

−8.5

BEL

L 68-73

−1.5

VAL

L 63-69

−4.5

covered 8didn’t cover 11avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 101-78

+37.5

NEV

L 81-86

+14.5

NDSU

L 85-92

+23.5

DEL

W 79-59

−15.5

UAB

L 73-81

−7.5

MEM

L 58-74

−24.5

W 74-65

−2.5

HPU

W 86-84

+7.5

UTM

W 83-54

−9.5

RICH

L 84-93

+23.5

ILST

L 68-75

−10.5

BRAD

L 69-73

−10.5

MUR

L 81-84

−0.5

VAL

W 75-70

−0.5

BEL

W 68-67

−23.5

UIC

L 57-70

−19.5

DRKE

L 73-76

+4.5

BEL

L 68-73

−10.5

VAL

L 63-69

−10.5

over 6under 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

18 games played

Straight up

3-15

17% wins

Against the spread

8-10

44% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-11

39% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-1044%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-1139%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

covered 8didn’t cover 10avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

over 7under 11avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: S Illinois 1, Evansville 1, even 3

S IllinoisBetterEvansville

G J. Haynes7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 71

SIUBig

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

G C. Hawkins1.1 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

F M. Pikaar1.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 19

EVANBig

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F D. Hill NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

C J. Webber1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

S IllinoisBetterEvansville

SIU offense227th of 366 · -7.0

Even

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

SIU defense181st of 366 · -4.1

SIUSmall

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

Backcourt+0.1 · 2 players

SIUSmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players

EVANSmall

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSIU betterEVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

S Illinois

Guards

J. Haynes21 minC. Hawkins5 minB. McClureNewJ. FugateNewL. WalshNewJ. JacksonNew

Forwards

M. Pikaar11 minD. HillNewD. PauliukonisNewP. RanieriNewT. LaurNew

Centers

J. Webber7 min

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SIU72.7 #229

EVAN65.8 #347

Points per possession

SIU1.03 #285

EVAN0.97 #344

Pace (possessions)

SIU70.6 #91

EVAN67.9 #232

Shooting

Effective FG%

SIU49.1 #286

EVAN49.3 #280

3-point %

SIU27.8 #363

EVAN32.3 #268

3-point attempt rate

SIU29.2 #355

EVAN43.1 #109

Free throw rate

SIU31.3 #275

EVAN29.8 #315

Possessions

Turnover rate

SIU17.1 #207

EVAN19.1 #324

Offensive rebound rate

SIU30.9 #167

EVAN22.0 #355

Assists per game

SIU13.3 #188

EVAN12.6 #245

Defense

Points allowed

SIU70.5 #62

EVAN78.3 #275

Points allowed per possession

SIU1.00 #25

EVAN1.15 #329

Opponent effective FG%

SIU49.0 #70

EVAN55.1 #332

Opponent 3-point %

SIU30.4 #17

EVAN37.6 #351

Turnovers forced

SIU18.5 #74

EVAN15.4 #258

Defensive rebound rate

SIU72.7 #44

EVAN69.8 #170

Steals per game

SIU8.0 #38

EVAN5.0 #335

Blocks per game

SIU3.4 #157

EVAN3.3 #171

SIU		EVAN
Scoring
72.7 #229	Points per game	65.8 #347
1.03 #285	Points per possession	0.97 #344
70.6 #91	Pace (possessions)	67.9 #232
Shooting
49.1 #286	Effective FG%	49.3 #280
27.8 #363	3-point %	32.3 #268
29.2 #355	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #109
31.3 #275	Free throw rate	29.8 #315
Possessions
17.1 #207	Turnover rate	19.1 #324
30.9 #167	Offensive rebound rate	22.0 #355
13.3 #188	Assists per game	12.6 #245
Defense
70.5 #62	Points allowed	78.3 #275
1.00 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #329
49.0 #70	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #332
30.4 #17	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #351
18.5 #74	Turnovers forced	15.4 #258
72.7 #44	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #170
8.0 #38	Steals per game	5.0 #335
3.4 #157	Blocks per game	3.3 #171

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Illinois

7-12 overall · 2-7 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Valparaiso63–69
Lvs Belmont68–73
Lvs Drake73–76
L@ UIC57–70
W@ Belmont68–67

4 days since their last game.

Evansville

3-15 overall · 1-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UIC49–76
Lvs Bradley90–94
W@ Indiana St72–69
Lvs Murray St69–79
Lvs Northern Iowa48–62

5 days since their last game.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Evansville Purple Aces

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

S Illinois

Evansville

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

S Illinois

Evansville