The Jungle · at IU Indy · Conference game
Line
PFW -3.5no move
PFW -3.5no moveTotal164.5no move
| PFW | This season | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | Record | 4-16 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 8-12 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 7-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects PFW 86–82 · win probability PFW 64%
Line
PFW -3.5
no move since the open
Total
164.5
model 168.3 · Over by 4
Model edge
PFW by 0.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: PFW has more of the edges
PFW 4, IUIN 1 · 2025-26 so far
PFWBigFree throws
Free throw rate: PFW 30.6, IUIN 21.7. Allowed: PFW 28.6, IUIN 46.6
PFWBigPFW offense vs IUIN defense
Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 364th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: PFW plays 69.0 a game (179th fastest), IUIN 75.3 (4th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
PFW has played the 209th-hardest schedule, IUIN the 284th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PFWSmallRecent form
Last 5: PFW 4-1 ATS, margin +7.0; IUIN 2-3 ATS, margin -2.0
IUINSmallHome court
IUIN at home. This season: IUIN 2-5 at home, PFW 4-7 away
PFWSmallThree-pointers
PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%; IUIN hits 32.4% and allows 38.5%. Threes are 45.4% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PFW 22.9%, IUIN 28.7%. Defensive: PFW 65.5%, IUIN 64.5%
Even
IUIN offense vs PFW defense
Offense 249th of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PFW 14.5%, IUIN 15.8%. Forced: PFW 19.1%, IUIN 19.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PFW 29%, IUIN 14%. Transfers in: PFW 2, IUIN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1; IUIN 52.2 and allows 58.2
Even
Rest
PFW 4 days since its last game, IUIN 4
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road favorites of 3 to 6.5 | 1543 | 67% | 51% | 50% |
| Conference games at this spread | 3906 | 66% | 50% | 49% |
| Games with a total of 160 to 164.5 | 787 | 78% | 50% | 54% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenPFW -3.5
no move
NowPFW -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open164.5
no move
Now164.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PFW -185 · IUIN +154
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PFW -3.5 · unchangedmodel PFW -4
model PFW -4
Opened 164.5 · unchangedmodel 168.5
model 168.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PFW -3.5 | PFW -4.2 | PFW +0.7 |
| Total | 164.5 | 168.3 | Over 3.8 |
| Projected score | — | PFW 86.3 · IUIN 82.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | PFW -2.6 | — |
| 1H total | 78.8 | — |
| 1H projected score | PFW 40.7 · IUIN 38.1 | — |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFW | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| IUIN | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
PFW 6–1 IUINPFW leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · PFW has won the last 3 meetings · PFW 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | PFW 91 @ IUIN 80 | IUIN +8.5 | PFW W |
| Dec 11, 2024-25 | IUIN 76 @ PFW 78 | PFW -14.5 | IUIN W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | PFW 92 @ IUIN 65 | IUIN +12.5 | PFW W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | IUIN 85 @ PFW 79 | PFW -16.5 | IUIN W |
| Jan 25, 2022-23 | IUIN 75 @ PFW 81 | PFW -18.5 | IUIN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Purdue FW
18 games played
Straight up
10-8
56% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ GCU | L 71-90 | +14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 7 | @ OSU | L 68-94 | +24.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 12 | @ WMU | L 71-83 | -3.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | @ UTAH | L 77-85 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 21 | @ SLU | L 60-91 | +19.5 | L −11.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 25 | vs CHST | W 90-77 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ OAK | L 92-101 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 6 | vs NKU | W 79-77 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 10 | vs EMU | W 80-65 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 14 | vs DETM | W 81-77 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 21 | @ ND | W 72-69 | +11.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 29 | @ MILW | L 55-77 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 1 | vs GB | L 54-72 | -8.5 | L −26.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 4 | vs CLE | W 74-71 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ YSU | W 71-69 | +4.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 11 | @ RMU | W 79-74 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 18 | vsMILW | W 100-82 | -3.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 21 | @DETM | W 83-76 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@GCU
GCUL 71-90
−4.5
7
@OSU
OSUL 68-94
−1.5
12
@WMU
WMUL 71-83
−15.5
18
@UTAH
UTAHL 77-85
+5.5
21
@SLU
SLUL 60-91
−11.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 90-77
+0.5
3
@OAK
OAKL 92-101
−4.5
6
vsNKU
NKUW 79-77
+0.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 80-65
+11.5
14
vsDETM
DETMW 81-77
−5.5
21
@ND
NDW 72-69
+14.5
29
@MILW
MILWL 55-77
−18.5
1
vsGB
GBL 54-72
−26.5
4
vsCLE
CLEW 74-71
−8.5
7
@YSU
YSUW 71-69
+6.5
11
@RMU
RMUW 79-74
+9.5
18
vsMILW
MILWW 100-82
+14.5
21
@DETM
DETMW 83-76
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@GCU
GCUL 71-90
+5.5
7
@OSU
OSUL 68-94
+2.5
12
@WMU
WMUL 71-83
−7.5
18
@UTAH
UTAHL 77-85
+0.5
21
@SLU
SLUL 60-91
−15.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 90-77
+17.5
3
@OAK
OAKL 92-101
+30.5
6
vsNKU
NKUW 79-77
+2.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 80-65
−2.5
14
vsDETM
DETMW 81-77
+4.5
21
@ND
NDW 72-69
−8.5
29
@MILW
MILWL 55-77
−24.5
1
vsGB
GBL 54-72
−19.5
4
vsCLE
CLEW 74-71
−14.5
7
@YSU
YSUW 71-69
−5.5
11
@RMU
RMUW 79-74
+6.5
18
vsMILW
MILWW 100-82
+33.5
21
@DETM
DETMW 83-76
+3.5
over 10under 8avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
IU Indy
20 games played
Straight up
4-16
20% wins
Against the spread
8-12
40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-13
35% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @OSU | L 102-118 | +33.5 | W +17.5 | 172.5 | O 220 |
| Nov 6 | vs LIU | L 90-94 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 185.5 | U 184 |
| Nov 8 | @ BTLR | L 80-112 | +20.5 | L −11.5 | 192.5 | U 192 |
| Nov 14 | @EMU | W 90-83 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 186.5 | U 173 |
| Nov 18 | @ CHSO | L 91-103 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 188.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 21 | vs ALST | L 80-101 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 181.5 | U 181 |
| Nov 23 | @ AF | L 85-98 | +3.5 | L −9.5 | 175.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs MORE | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 181.5 | U 165 |
| Dec 3 | @DETM | L 78-92 | +3.5 | L −10.5 | 180.5 | U 170 |
| Dec 6 | vsYSU | L 55-78 | +6.5 | L −16.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 11 | vsGB | L 75-85 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Dec 22 | @GCU | L 78-91 | +23.5 | W +10.5 | 169.5 | U 169 |
| Dec 29 | @CLE | L 86-99 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 172.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 1 | @NKU | L 72-81 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 176.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 4 | vs WRST | L 77-81 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 9 | @GB | L 59-75 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 11 | @MILW | L 83-95 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 15 | vsRMU | W 96-93 | +5.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 189 |
| Jan 17 | vsDETM | L 77-80 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 21 | @OAK | W 103-85 | +14.5 | W +32.5 | 176.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OSU
OSUL 102-118
+17.5
6
vsLIU
LIUL 90-94
−8.5
8
@BTLR
BTLRL 80-112
−11.5
14
@EMU
EMUW 90-83
+11.5
18
@CHSO
CHSOL 91-103
−13.5
21
vsALST
ALSTL 80-101
−23.5
23
@AF
AFL 85-98
−9.5
29
vsMORE
MOREW 85-80
+1.5
3
@DETM
DETML 78-92
−10.5
6
vsYSU
YSUL 55-78
−16.5
11
vsGB
GBL 75-85
−13.5
22
@GCU
GCUL 78-91
+10.5
29
@CLE
CLEL 86-99
−11.5
1
@NKU
NKUL 72-81
+4.5
4
vsWRST
WRSTL 77-81
+4.5
9
@GB
GBL 59-75
−9.5
11
@MILW
MILWL 83-95
−3.5
15
vsRMU
RMUW 96-93
+8.5
17
vsDETM
DETML 77-80
−4.5
21
@OAK
OAKW 103-85
+32.5
covered 8didn’t cover 12avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OSU
OSUL 102-118
+47.5
6
vsLIU
LIUL 90-94
−1.5
8
@BTLR
BTLRL 80-112
−0.5
14
@EMU
EMUW 90-83
−13.5
18
@CHSO
CHSOL 91-103
+5.5
21
vsALST
ALSTL 80-101
−0.5
23
@AF
AFL 85-98
+7.5
29
vsMORE
MOREW 85-80
−16.5
3
@DETM
DETML 78-92
−10.5
6
vsYSU
YSUL 55-78
−38.5
11
vsGB
GBL 75-85
−5.5
22
@GCU
GCUL 78-91
−0.5
29
@CLE
CLEL 86-99
+12.5
1
@NKU
NKUL 72-81
−23.5
4
vsWRST
WRSTL 77-81
−4.5
9
@GB
GBL 59-75
−22.5
11
@MILW
MILWL 83-95
+12.5
15
vsRMU
RMUW 96-93
+28.5
17
vsDETM
DETML 77-80
−12.5
21
@OAK
OAKW 103-85
+11.5
over 7under 13avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Purdue FW 2, IU Indy 2, even 1
Purdue FWBetterIU Indy
G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 68
←PFWBig
G B. Smith TR8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 18
G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast
Score 16
→IUINBig
G G. Etchison TR9 pts · 1.3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 93
G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 2
→IUINSmall
G J. Clarke TR3.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 34
G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 9
=Even
F K. Tinsley7.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 17
F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 63
←PFWBig
F R. Hagy2.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 2
Purdue FWBetterIU Indy
PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7
←PFWBig
IUIN defense364th of 366 · -12.3
PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3
=Even
IUIN offense249th of 366 · -7.5
Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players
→IUINBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player
←PFWBig
Frontcourt-3.2 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
=No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestPFW betterIUIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue FWGuards
D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew
Forwards
A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew
IU IndyGuards
B. Smith24 min · TRG. Etchison14 min · TRJ. Clarke13 min · TRM. Pastorcic-StraunNewP. HeissNewT. DrexlerNew
Forwards
K. Tinsley18 minR. Hagy11 minP. IdiaruNewA. ArnettNewM. StackhouseNew
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
PFW74.2 #189IUIN80.9 #49Points per possession
PFW1.07 #204IUIN1.07 #200Pace (possessions)
PFW69.0 #179IUIN75.3 #4Shooting
Effective FG%
PFW52.6 #125IUIN52.2 #1363-point %
PFW34.2 #163IUIN32.4 #2583-point attempt rate
PFW45.4 #60IUIN42.1 #134Free throw rate
PFW30.6 #292IUIN21.7 #365Possessions
Turnover rate
PFW14.5 #43IUIN15.8 #127Offensive rebound rate
PFW22.9 #351IUIN28.7 #243Assists per game
PFW13.1 #207IUIN18.9 #3Defense
Points allowed
PFW78.8 #286IUIN89.2 #364Points allowed per possession
PFW1.14 #311IUIN1.19 #353Opponent effective FG%
PFW56.1 #345IUIN58.2 #362Opponent 3-point %
PFW37.9 #355IUIN38.5 #361Turnovers forced
PFW19.1 #44IUIN19.2 #41Defensive rebound rate
PFW65.5 #327IUIN64.5 #348Steals per game
PFW7.9 #42IUIN8.0 #39Blocks per game
PFW3.0 #224IUIN2.9 #243| PFW | IUIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 74.2 #189 | Points per game | 80.9 #49 |
| 1.07 #204 | Points per possession | 1.07 #200 |
| 69.0 #179 | Pace (possessions) | 75.3 #4 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.6 #125 | Effective FG% | 52.2 #136 |
| 34.2 #163 | 3-point % | 32.4 #258 |
| 45.4 #60 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #134 |
| 30.6 #292 | Free throw rate | 21.7 #365 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.5 #43 | Turnover rate | 15.8 #127 |
| 22.9 #351 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.7 #243 |
| 13.1 #207 | Assists per game | 18.9 #3 |
| Defense | ||
| 78.8 #286 | Points allowed | 89.2 #364 |
| 1.14 #311 | Points allowed per possession | 1.19 #353 |
| 56.1 #345 | Opponent effective FG% | 58.2 #362 |
| 37.9 #355 | Opponent 3-point % | 38.5 #361 |
| 19.1 #44 | Turnovers forced | 19.2 #41 |
| 65.5 #327 | Defensive rebound rate | 64.5 #348 |
| 7.9 #42 | Steals per game | 8.0 #39 |
| 3.0 #224 | Blocks per game | 2.9 #243 |
Purdue FW
10-8 overall · 7-3 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Detroit Mercy83–76
- Wvs Milwaukee100–82
- W@ Robert Morris79–74
- W@ Youngstown St71–69
- Wvs Cleveland St74–71
4 days since their last game.
IU Indy
4-16 overall · 2-9 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Oakland103–85
- Lvs Detroit Mercy77–80
- Wvs Robert Morris96–93
- L@ Milwaukee83–95
- L@ Green Bay59–75
4 days since their last game.