Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center · at New Haven · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SFPA | This season | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-14 | Record | 6-11 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 9-8 |
| 8-10 | O/U | 5-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NHVN 71–64 · win probability NHVN 74%
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 134.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NHVN has more of the edges
SFPA 2, NHVN 5 · 2025-26 so far
SFPABigNHVN offense vs SFPA defense
Offense 362nd of 366 against a defense 85th, on the model’s ratings
SFPABigSFPA offense vs NHVN defense
Offense 89th of 366 against a defense 285th, on the model’s ratings
NHVNBigFree throws
Free throw rate: SFPA 30.9, NHVN 31.7. Allowed: SFPA 38.3, NHVN 27.7
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: SFPA plays 70.3 a game (101st fastest), NHVN 63.5 (363rd). Faster games mean more points
NHVNSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SFPA 27.5%, NHVN 21.5%. Defensive: SFPA 66.9%, NHVN 73.2%
NHVNSmallShooting
Effective FG%: SFPA 48.9 and allows 58.9; NHVN 48.7 and allows 51.8
NHVNSmallHome court
NHVN at home. This season: NHVN 3-3 at home, SFPA 1-8 away
NHVNSmallWho is back
Minutes back from last season: SFPA 0%, NHVN 27%. Transfers in: SFPA 0, NHVN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SFPA 4-1 ATS, margin +2.6; NHVN 3-2 ATS, margin -1.6
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SFPA 18.5%, NHVN 17.8%. Forced: SFPA 18.4%, NHVN 17.1%
Context
Schedule so far
SFPA has played the 321st-hardest schedule, NHVN the 307th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
SFPA hits 34.2% and allows 38.0%; NHVN hits 30.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 37.8% and 39.9% of their shots
Even
Rest
SFPA 2 days since its last game, NHVN 2
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNHVN -7.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model134.9
Model edge—
Projected score
SFPA 63.8 · NHVN 71.1
Win probability
NHVN 74%
1st half
Spread
NHVN -4.2
Total
63.2
Projected score
SFPA 29.5 · NHVN 33.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFPA | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| NHVN | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Saint Francis Red Wolves
18 games played
Straight up
4-14
22% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OU | L 66-102 | +31.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 6 | @ TCU | L 63-104 | +27.5 | L −13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 11 | vs MSM | L 66-74 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 18 | @ LEH | L 62-79 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 24 | vs BEL | L 57-94 | +21.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TROY | L 64-74 | +21.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | @ XAV | L 74-96 | +27.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 7 | @ RAD | L 56-89 | +13.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 14 | @ TEM | L 67-95 | +20.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 17 | @ FLA | L 61-102 | +44.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 20 | vs RMU | L 70-79 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 2 | vs LEM | L 58-84 | +5.5 | L −20.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 4 | vs FDU | W 85-82 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 8 | @ WAG | W 71-69 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 10 | @ LIU | L 63-67 | +15.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 17 | vs CCSU | L 90-98 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 19 | vs STO | W 63-61 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 23 | vs CHST | W 81-60 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OU
OUL 66-102
−4.5
6
@TCU
TCUL 63-104
−13.5
11
vsMSM
MSML 66-74
−1.5
18
@LEH
LEHL 62-79
−6.5
24
vsBEL
BELL 57-94
−15.5
26
vsTROY
TROYL 64-74
+11.5
1
@XAV
XAVL 74-96
+5.5
7
@RAD
RADL 56-89
−19.5
14
@TEM
TEML 67-95
−7.5
17
@FLA
FLAL 61-102
+3.5
20
vsRMU
RMUL 70-79
+4.5
2
vsLEM
LEML 58-84
−20.5
4
vsFDU
FDUW 85-82
+5.5
8
@WAG
WAGW 71-69
+9.5
10
@LIU
LIUL 63-67
+11.5
17
vsCCSU
CCSUL 90-98
−1.5
19
vsSTO
STOW 63-61
+0.5
23
vsCHST
CHSTW 81-60
+17.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OU
OUL 66-102
+18.5
6
@TCU
TCUL 63-104
+13.5
11
vsMSM
MSML 66-74
−9.5
18
@LEH
LEHL 62-79
−10.5
24
vsBEL
BELL 57-94
−6.5
26
vsTROY
TROYL 64-74
−13.5
1
@XAV
XAVL 74-96
+17.5
7
@RAD
RADL 56-89
−9.5
14
@TEM
TEML 67-95
+11.5
17
@FLA
FLAL 61-102
+6.5
20
vsRMU
RMUL 70-79
+3.5
2
vsLEM
LEML 58-84
−9.5
4
vsFDU
FDUW 85-82
+23.5
8
@WAG
WAGW 71-69
−4.5
10
@LIU
LIUL 63-67
−18.5
17
vsCCSU
CCSUL 90-98
+43.5
19
vsSTO
STOW 63-61
−17.5
23
vsCHST
CHSTW 81-60
−2.5
over 8under 10avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Haven
17 games played
Straight up
6-11
35% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-12
29% overs · avg −6.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CONN | L 55-79 | +42.5 | W +18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs COLU | L 53-71 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 8 | vs PSU | L 43-87 | +18.5 | L −25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 10 | @ UML | W 73-67 | +10.5 | W +16.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 15 | vs DSU | W 65-52 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 18 | @ HALL | L 45-68 | +25.5 | W +2.5 | 129.5 | U 113 |
| Dec 6 | @ BC | L 63-67 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 126.5 | O 130 |
| Dec 10 | @ NJIT | L 64-70 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 134 |
| Dec 22 | @ FOR | L 47-65 | +13.5 | L −4.5 | 127.5 | U 112 |
| Dec 29 | @ VAN | L 53-96 | +39.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 2 | @STO | W 70-55 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 128.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 4 | @CCSU | L 61-72 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 130.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 8 | @LEM | L 47-73 | +5.5 | L −20.5 | 137.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 10 | vsFDU | W 65-55 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 130.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 17 | vsWAG | W 80-74 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 129.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 19 | @CHST | W 62-56 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 129.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 23 | vs MERC | L 57-61 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 122.5 | U 118 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CONN
CONNL 55-79
+18.5
7
vsCOLU
COLUL 53-71
−10.5
8
vsPSU
PSUL 43-87
−25.5
10
@UML
UMLW 73-67
+16.5
15
vsDSU
DSUW 65-52
+11.5
18
@HALL
HALLL 45-68
+2.5
6
@BC
BCL 63-67
+13.5
10
@NJIT
NJITL 64-70
−8.5
22
@FOR
FORL 47-65
−4.5
29
@VAN
VANL 53-96
−3.5
2
@STO
STOW 70-55
+16.5
4
@CCSU
CCSUL 61-72
−3.5
8
@LEM
LEML 47-73
−20.5
10
vsFDU
FDUW 65-55
+8.5
17
vsWAG
WAGW 80-74
+4.5
19
@CHST
CHSTW 62-56
+7.5
23
vsMERC
MERCL 57-61
−2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CONN
CONNL 55-79
−11.5
7
vsCOLU
COLUL 53-71
−24.5
8
vsPSU
PSUL 43-87
−13.5
10
@UML
UMLW 73-67
−2.5
15
vsDSU
DSUW 65-52
−13.5
18
@HALL
HALLL 45-68
−16.5
6
@BC
BCL 63-67
+3.5
10
@NJIT
NJITL 64-70
+3.5
22
@FOR
FORL 47-65
−15.5
29
@VAN
VANL 53-96
+3.5
2
@STO
STOW 70-55
−3.5
4
@CCSU
CCSUL 61-72
+2.5
8
@LEM
LEML 47-73
−17.5
10
vsFDU
FDUW 65-55
−10.5
17
vsWAG
WAGW 80-74
+24.5
19
@CHST
CHSTW 62-56
−11.5
23
vsMERC
MERCL 57-61
−4.5
over 5under 12avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SFPA70.0 #284NHVN61.5 #363Points per possession
SFPA1.00 #329NHVN0.97 #345Pace (possessions)
SFPA70.3 #101NHVN63.5 #363Shooting
Effective FG%
SFPA48.9 #290NHVN48.7 #2963-point %
SFPA34.2 #160NHVN30.2 #3403-point attempt rate
SFPA37.8 #217NHVN39.9 #172Free throw rate
SFPA30.9 #285NHVN31.7 #261Possessions
Turnover rate
SFPA18.5 #294NHVN17.8 #259Offensive rebound rate
SFPA27.5 #280NHVN21.5 #359Assists per game
SFPA12.9 #224NHVN10.9 #339Defense
Points allowed
SFPA83.1 #347NHVN67.4 #24Points allowed per possession
SFPA1.18 #349NHVN1.06 #107Opponent effective FG%
SFPA58.9 #364NHVN51.8 #203Opponent 3-point %
SFPA38.0 #359NHVN34.3 #199Turnovers forced
SFPA18.4 #80NHVN17.1 #146Defensive rebound rate
SFPA66.9 #301NHVN73.2 #30Steals per game
SFPA7.4 #89NHVN6.0 #232Blocks per game
SFPA1.7 #358NHVN2.0 #342| SFPA | NHVN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 70.0 #284 | Points per game | 61.5 #363 |
| 1.00 #329 | Points per possession | 0.97 #345 |
| 70.3 #101 | Pace (possessions) | 63.5 #363 |
| Shooting | ||
| 48.9 #290 | Effective FG% | 48.7 #296 |
| 34.2 #160 | 3-point % | 30.2 #340 |
| 37.8 #217 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.9 #172 |
| 30.9 #285 | Free throw rate | 31.7 #261 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.5 #294 | Turnover rate | 17.8 #259 |
| 27.5 #280 | Offensive rebound rate | 21.5 #359 |
| 12.9 #224 | Assists per game | 10.9 #339 |
| Defense | ||
| 83.1 #347 | Points allowed | 67.4 #24 |
| 1.18 #349 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #107 |
| 58.9 #364 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.8 #203 |
| 38.0 #359 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.3 #199 |
| 18.4 #80 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #146 |
| 66.9 #301 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.2 #30 |
| 7.4 #89 | Steals per game | 6.0 #232 |
| 1.7 #358 | Blocks per game | 2.0 #342 |
Saint Francis Red Wolves
4-14 overall · 4-3 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Chicago St81–60
- Wvs Stonehill63–61
- Lvs C Connecticut90–98
- L@ Long Island63–67
- W@ Wagner71–69
2 days since their last game.
New Haven
6-11 overall · 4-3 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Mercyhurst57–61
- W@ Chicago St62–56
- Wvs Wagner80–74
- Wvs FDU65–55
- L@ Le Moyne47–73
2 days since their last game.