Athletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso · Conference game
Closing line
BEL -5.5✓ VAL covered by 4.5
BEL -5.5✓ VAL covered by 4.5Closing total145.5Over by 9.5
| BEL | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17-3 | Record | 9-10 |
| 11-9 | ATS | 12-7 |
| 10-10 | O/U | 9-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BEL 76–71 VAL · ✓ BEL (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEL | 42 | 36 | 78 |
| VAL | 38 | 39 | 77 |
1st half: BEL 42, VAL 38 (BEL by 4). The model had BEL by 3.1 and a total of 69.0 (actual 80).
Team stats
| BEL | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-50 54% | Field goals | 26-61 43% |
| 11-24 46% | 3-pointers | 9-27 33% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 16-21 76% |
| 32 7 off | Rebounds | 30 11 off |
| 18 | Assists | 11 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BEL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabez Jenkins G | 33 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Tyler Lundblade G | 31 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 2-8 |
| Isaiah West G | 25 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Drew Scharnowski F | 24 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Sam Orme F | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brigham Rogers F | 24 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Eoin Dillon F | 23 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 7-11 | 5-7 |
| Jack Smiley G | 20 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| Win Miller G | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Noyes F | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cooper Haynes, Jake Dykstra, Graydon Lemke, Keith Robbins, Nic McClain
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease F | 35 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 6-15 | 3-7 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 32 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 5-12 | 4-7 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 27 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 22 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 18 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justus McNair G | 21 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 17 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Sader Servilus G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kyonte Thomas, Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson, Joe Vick
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBEL -5.5
ModelBEL -5.0
Model edgeVAL +0.5
W VAL covered
Total
Market145.5
Model147.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
W Over
Projected score
BEL 76.2 · VAL 71.2
BEL 78 · VAL 77
Win probability
BEL 67%
1st half
Spread
BEL -3.1
BEL -4.0
Total
69.0
80 points
Projected score
BEL 36.1 · VAL 32.9
BEL 42 · VAL 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBEL -4.5
1 → BEL
CloseBEL -5.5
1 pt toward BEL
Total
Open144.5
▲ 1
Close145.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BEL -225 · VAL +185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BEL -4.5 · closed BEL -5.5 · moved 1 toward BELmodel BEL -5
model BEL -5
Opened 144.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 1 upmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEL | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| VAL | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
BEL 7–1 VALBEL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BEL 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | VAL 74 @ BEL 78 | BEL -11.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | BEL 86 @ VAL 101 | VAL +4.5 | VAL W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | VAL 64 @ BEL 71 | BEL -7.5 | VAL W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | VAL 61 vs BEL 86 | BEL -13.5 | BEL W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | BEL 96 @ VAL 78 | VAL +6.5 | BEL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Belmont
20 games played
Straight up
17-3
85% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AF | W 79-63 | -15.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs TNST | W 87-79 | -13.5 | L −5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 15 | @ ORU | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 19 | vs LIP | W 75-68 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 24 | vs SFPA | W 94-57 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOL | W 87-72 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 30 | @ COFC | W 96-73 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 3 | vs RICH | L 76-84 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 7 | @ MTSU | W 83-62 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs UIC | W 87-84 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 16 | @ EVAN | W 83-78 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCI | W 84-58 | +1.5 | W +27.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 29 | @ INST | L 80-81 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | vs BRAD | W 88-78 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | vs SIU | L 67-68 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 7 | @ UNI | W 78-65 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | @ DRKE | W 78-76 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 13 | vsVAL | W 78-74 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | @SIU | W 73-68 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 24 | vs ILST | W 80-69 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAF
AFW 79-63
+0.5
8
vsTNST
TNSTW 87-79
−5.5
15
@ORU
ORUW 83-60
+15.5
19
vsLIP
LIPW 75-68
−5.5
24
vsSFPA
SFPAW 94-57
+15.5
26
vsTOL
TOLW 87-72
+10.5
30
@COFC
COFCW 96-73
+20.5
3
vsRICH
RICHL 76-84
−14.5
7
@MTSU
MTSUW 83-62
+17.5
13
vsUIC
UICW 87-84
−9.5
16
@EVAN
EVANW 83-78
−3.5
19
@UCI
UCIW 84-58
+27.5
29
@INST
INSTL 80-81
−8.5
1
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-78
+6.5
4
vsSIU
SIUL 67-68
−7.5
7
@UNI
UNIW 78-65
+15.5
10
@DRKE
DRKEW 78-76
−2.5
13
vsVAL
VALW 78-74
−7.5
17
@SIU
SIUW 73-68
+1.5
24
vsILST
ILSTW 80-69
+5.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAF
AFW 79-63
−2.5
8
vsTNST
TNSTW 87-79
+7.5
15
@ORU
ORUW 83-60
−28.5
19
vsLIP
LIPW 75-68
−15.5
24
vsSFPA
SFPAW 94-57
−6.5
26
vsTOL
TOLW 87-72
−4.5
30
@COFC
COFCW 96-73
+16.5
3
vsRICH
RICHL 76-84
+3.5
7
@MTSU
MTSUW 83-62
−8.5
13
vsUIC
UICW 87-84
+16.5
16
@EVAN
EVANW 83-78
+13.5
19
@UCI
UCIW 84-58
−8.5
29
@INST
INSTL 80-81
+1.5
1
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-78
+12.5
4
vsSIU
SIUL 67-68
−23.5
7
@UNI
UNIW 78-65
+5.5
10
@DRKE
DRKEW 78-76
+5.5
13
vsVAL
VALW 78-74
+5.5
17
@SIU
SIUW 73-68
−10.5
24
vsILST
ILSTW 80-69
−1.5
over 10under 10avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
19 games played
Straight up
9-10
47% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vs MUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vsUIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vsILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
over 9under 10avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Belmont
17-3 overall · 8-2 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Illinois St80–69
- W@ S Illinois73–68
- Wvs Valparaiso78–74
- W@ Drake78–76
- W@ Northern Iowa78–65
4 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
9-10 overall · 4-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs S Illinois69–63
- Wvs Northern Iowa54–44
- L@ Belmont74–78
- L@ Murray St79–92
- Wvs Illinois St77–71
A week or more of rest.