UD Arena · at Dayton · Conference game
Closing line
SLU -3.5✓ DAY covered by 18.5
SLU -3.5✓ DAY covered by 18.5Closing total157.5Under by 18.5
| SLU | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 24-2 | Record | 18-9 |
| 17-9 | ATS | 12-15 |
| 13-13 | O/U | 11-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SLU 80–76 DAY · ✗ SLU (63%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLU | 28 | 34 | 62 |
| DAY | 44 | 33 | 77 |
1st half: SLU 28, DAY 44 (DAY by 16). The model had SLU by 2.5 and a total of 72.7 (actual 72).
Team stats
| SLU | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-55 40% | Field goals | 24-51 47% |
| 5-21 24% | 3-pointers | 8-20 40% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 21-28 75% |
| 35 8 off | Rebounds | 30 5 off |
| 10 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| SLU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Jones G | 28 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Robbie Avila C | 25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Amari McCottry G | 22 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Dion Brown G | 22 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-3 |
| Trey Green G | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ishan Sharma F | 30 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kellen Thames G | 28 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 9-14 | 1-2 |
| Brady Dunlap F | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Paul Otieno F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Badara Diakite, Luke Laczkowski, Cam Hutson, Jax Kerr, Dylan Warlick, Isaac Holmes, Jaden Schertz, Kalu Anya
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 38 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 32 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 30 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 6-11 | 2-4 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Keonte Jones G | 29 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Derkack G | 24 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-2 |
| Jacob Conner F | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malcolm Thomas, Sean Pouedet, Bryce Heard, Damon Friery, Jaron McKie, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSLU -3.5
ModelSLU -3.9
Model edgeSLU +0.4
L DAY covered
Total
Market157.5
Model155.5
Model edgeUnder 2.0
W Under
Projected score
SLU 79.7 · DAY 75.8
SLU 62 · DAY 77
Win probability
SLU 63%
1st half
Spread
SLU -2.5
DAY -16.0
Total
72.7
72 points
Projected score
SLU 37.6 · DAY 35.1
SLU 28 · DAY 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSLU -5.5
2 → DAY
CloseSLU -3.5
2 pts toward DAY
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
SLU -185 · DAY +154
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SLU -5.5 · closed SLU -3.5 · moved 2 toward DAYmodel SLU -4
model SLU -4
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
| DAY | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
SLU 3–6 DAYDAY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SLU 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025-26 | DAY 71 @ SLU 102 | SLU -9.5 | SLU W |
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | SLU 67 @ DAY 75 | DAY -6.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 31, 2024-25 | DAY 71 @ SLU 63 | SLU -2.5 | DAY W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | DAY 100 @ SLU 83 | SLU +9.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | SLU 65 @ DAY 70 | DAY -11.5 | SLU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Saint Louis
26 games played
Straight up
24-2
92% wins
Against the spread
17-9
65% covers · avg +5.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-13
50% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SEMO | W 92-67 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 6 | vs CHST | W 108-86 | -30.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 10 | vs LIN | W 109-66 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 165.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 15 | vs GCU | W 78-64 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 167.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 21 | vs PFW | W 91-60 | -19.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 27 | vs SCU | W 71-70 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 158.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs STAN | L 77-78 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 2 | @ LMU | W 91-70 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 7 | vs CMU | W 107-65 | -24.5 | W +17.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | vs SF | W 85-75 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 17 | vs BCU | W 112-53 | -26.5 | W +32.5 | 157.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNH | W 93-79 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 31 | vs JOES | W 102-79 | -19.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 7 | @ VCU | W 71-62 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ LAS | W 84-72 | -17.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 14 | vs FOR | W 78-56 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 17 | vs RICH | W 88-63 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 20 | @ DUQ | W 81-77 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | @ SBU | W 97-62 | -8.5 | W +26.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 27 | vs GW | W 79-76 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 167.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 30 | vsDAY | W 102-71 | -9.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 3 | @ DAV | W 91-82 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 7 | vsLAS | W 82-58 | -22.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 13 | @ LUC | W 86-59 | -17.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 17 | @ URI | L 76-81 | -9.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 20 | vsVCU | W 88-75 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | U 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSEMO
SEMOW 92-67
+5.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 108-86
−8.5
10
vsLIN
LINW 109-66
+18.5
15
vsGCU
GCUW 78-64
+5.5
21
vsPFW
PFWW 91-60
+11.5
27
vsSCU
SCUW 71-70
−0.5
28
vsSTAN
STANL 77-78
−2.5
2
@LMU
LMUW 91-70
+13.5
7
vsCMU
CMUW 107-65
+17.5
13
vsSF
SFW 85-75
−2.5
17
vsBCU
BCUW 112-53
+32.5
21
vsUNH
UNHW 93-79
−20.5
31
vsJOES
JOESW 102-79
+3.5
7
@VCU
VCUW 71-62
+10.5
10
@LAS
LASW 84-72
−5.5
14
vsFOR
FORW 78-56
+4.5
17
vsRICH
RICHW 88-63
+10.5
20
@DUQ
DUQW 81-77
−4.5
23
@SBU
SBUW 97-62
+26.5
27
vsGW
GWW 79-76
−7.5
30
vsDAY
DAYW 102-71
+21.5
3
@DAV
DAVW 91-82
+0.5
7
vsLAS
LASW 82-58
+1.5
13
@LUC
LUCW 86-59
+9.5
17
@URI
URIL 76-81
−14.5
20
vsVCU
VCUW 88-75
+5.5
covered 17didn’t cover 9avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSEMO
SEMOW 92-67
+5.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 108-86
+38.5
10
vsLIN
LINW 109-66
+9.5
15
vsGCU
GCUW 78-64
−25.5
21
vsPFW
PFWW 91-60
−15.5
27
vsSCU
SCUW 71-70
−17.5
28
vsSTAN
STANL 77-78
−5.5
2
@LMU
LMUW 91-70
+10.5
7
vsCMU
CMUW 107-65
+11.5
13
vsSF
SFW 85-75
+4.5
17
vsBCU
BCUW 112-53
+7.5
21
vsUNH
UNHW 93-79
+14.5
31
vsJOES
JOESW 102-79
+19.5
7
@VCU
VCUW 71-62
−38.5
10
@LAS
LASW 84-72
+3.5
14
vsFOR
FORW 78-56
−20.5
17
vsRICH
RICHW 88-63
−11.5
20
@DUQ
DUQW 81-77
−7.5
23
@SBU
SBUW 97-62
−0.5
27
vsGW
GWW 79-76
−12.5
30
vsDAY
DAYW 102-71
+21.5
3
@DAV
DAVW 91-82
+21.5
7
vsLAS
LASW 82-58
−13.5
13
@LUC
LUCW 86-59
−10.5
17
@URI
URIL 76-81
+5.5
20
vsVCU
VCUW 88-75
−1.5
over 13under 13avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
27 games played
Straight up
18-9
67% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-16
41% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vsBCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vsFOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vsGW | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 13 | @DUQ | W 71-65 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 16 | vsLUC | W 78-51 | -16.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @LAS | L 64-67 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @JOES | L 74-81 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 139.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 27 | vsURI | L 76-81 | -9.5 | L −14.5 | 138.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 30 | @SLU | L 71-102 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 3 | vsSBU | W 72-70 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 6 | @VCU | L 73-99 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 15 | vsDAV | W 70-59 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 18 | @ GMU | W 82-67 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsDUQ | W 78-66 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
+4.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
+3.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
+10.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−12.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
−13.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
−14.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
−21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−5.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
−17.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
+5.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+17.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
+5.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
−3.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
−16.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
−12.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−6.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
+15.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
+18.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
+21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−2.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
+24.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
−11.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+11.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
−4.5
over 11under 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Saint Louis
24-2 overall · 13-1 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs VCU88–75
- L@ Rhode Island76–81
- W@ Loyola Chicago86–59
- Wvs La Salle82–58
- W@ Davidson91–82
4 days since their last game.
Dayton
18-9 overall · 9-5 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Duquesne78–66
- W@ George Mason82–67
- Wvs Davidson70–59
- L@ VCU73–99
- Wvs St Bonaventure72–70
3 days since their last game.