Avron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane · Conference game
Closing line
USF -8.5✓ USF covered by 5.5
USF -8.5✓ USF covered by 5.5Closing total158.5Over by 21.5
| USF | This season | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| 12-7 | Record | 11-8 |
| 9-10 | ATS | 8-11 |
| 10-9 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USF 84–77 TULN · ✓ USF (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 52 | 45 | 97 |
| TULN | 39 | 44 | 83 |
1st half: USF 52, TULN 39 (USF by 13). The model had USF by 4.7 and a total of 75.2 (actual 91).
Team stats
| USF | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-65 48% | Field goals | 27-62 44% |
| 10-30 33% | 3-pointers | 13-34 38% |
| 25-35 71% | Free throws | 16-24 67% |
| 48 17 off | Rebounds | 30 8 off |
| 17 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 7 | Blocks | 6 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pinion G | 33 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 6-12 | 3-8 |
| Wes Enis G | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 7-13 | 5-10 |
| CJ Brown G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 22 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-2 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 16 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Daimion Collins F | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Adriel Nyorha G | 17 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Devin Haid G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Isaiah Jones F | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Tristan Beckford G | 9 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Sanders F | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Onyx Nnani, Xavier Brown, De'Ante Green
| TULN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Rasmussen G | 39 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-7 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 4-14 | 1-7 |
| Asher Woods G | 25 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Curtis Williams Jr. G | 23 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-11 | 4-7 |
| Tyler Ringgold F | 17 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| KJ Greene G | 24 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Percy Daniels C | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Scotty Middleton F | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Josiah Moore G | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Robert Moore, Vasilije Kuridza, Joseph Teich, Luke Cronin, Jake Shapiro, Davion Bradford
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSF -8.5
ModelUSF -7.7
Model edgeTULN +0.8
L USF covered
Total
Market158.5
Model160.7
Model edgeOver 2.2
W Over
Projected score
USF 84.2 · TULN 76.5
USF 97 · TULN 83
Win probability
USF 75%
1st half
Spread
USF -4.7
USF -13.0
Total
75.2
91 points
Projected score
USF 40 · TULN 35.3
USF 52 · TULN 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSF -7.5
1 → USF
CloseUSF -8.5
1 pt toward USF
Total
Open156.5
▲ 2
Close158.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USF -410 · TULN +320
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USF -7.5 · closed USF -8.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel USF -7.5
model USF -7.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 2 upmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| TULN | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USF 1–4 TULNTULN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · USF 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | USF 70 @ TULN 73 | TULN -3.5 | USF W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | TULN 72 @ USF 85 | USF -7.5 | USF W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | TULN 84 @ USF 66 | USF +4.5 | TULN W |
| Feb 15, 2021-22 | TULN 76 @ USF 57 | USF +4 | TULN W |
| Jan 8, 2021-22 | USF 54 @ TULN 68 | TULN -6 | TULN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Florida
19 games played
Straight up
12-7
63% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vs GW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vs VCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs WKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 4 | vs USU | W 74-61 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 10 | vs COFC | W 81-75 | -13.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 17 | @ ALA | L 93-104 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs UMBC | W 94-69 | -22.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | vs UAB | L 106-109 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | O 215 |
| Jan 7 | @ UNT | W 74-70 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ TLSA | W 93-78 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs ECU | W 82-71 | -18.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 18 | vs WICH | L 85-86 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 22 | @UAB | W 82-69 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 25 | vs FAU | W 89-75 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
+10.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−7.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+3.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
−11.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−0.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+16.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−7.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
−8.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
+10.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
+8.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
−27.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−4.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+18.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
+51.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−3.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+7.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−5.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
+12.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
−17.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
−2.5
over 10under 9avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tulane
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SAM | W 85-72 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs TXST | W 79-71 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 11 | @ UL | W 66-62 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 14 | vs NOLA | L 63-85 | -11.5 | L −33.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 21 | vsUSU | L 75-96 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs BC | W 93-90 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 28 | vs NICH | W 82-72 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs GRAM | W 65-63 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 6 | vs AKR | L 71-88 | +6.5 | L −10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCSD | L 67-93 | +5.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 17 | vs LT | W 61-53 | -4.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 20 | vs PRST | W 63-61 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 31 | @ECU | W 79-70 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 4 | vsFAU | W 69-66 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 158.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 10 | @ UTSA | W 85-52 | -7.5 | W +25.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 14 | vsUAB | L 69-82 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 18 | vsUNT | L 63-71 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 21 | @FAU | L 74-79 | +10.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 23 | @ CLT | L 70-73 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSAM
SAMW 85-72
+5.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 79-71
−4.5
11
@UL
ULW 66-62
−1.5
14
vsNOLA
NOLAL 63-85
−33.5
21
vsUSU
USUL 75-96
−12.5
23
vsBC
BCW 93-90
+5.5
28
vsNICH
NICHW 82-72
+1.5
2
vsGRAM
GRAMW 65-63
−9.5
6
vsAKR
AKRL 71-88
−10.5
13
vsUCSD
UCSDL 67-93
−20.5
17
vsLT
LTW 61-53
+3.5
20
vsPRST
PRSTW 63-61
−0.5
31
@ECU
ECUW 79-70
+7.5
4
vsFAU
FAUW 69-66
+6.5
10
@UTSA
UTSAW 85-52
+25.5
14
vsUAB
UABL 69-82
−11.5
18
vsUNT
UNTL 63-71
−9.5
21
@FAU
FAUL 74-79
+5.5
23
@CLT
CLTL 70-73
−0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSAM
SAMW 85-72
+2.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 79-71
+3.5
11
@UL
ULW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsNOLA
NOLAL 63-85
−5.5
21
vsUSU
USUL 75-96
+19.5
23
vsBC
BCW 93-90
+42.5
28
vsNICH
NICHW 82-72
+5.5
2
vsGRAM
GRAMW 65-63
−20.5
6
vsAKR
AKRL 71-88
−3.5
13
vsUCSD
UCSDL 67-93
+10.5
17
vsLT
LTW 61-53
−26.5
20
vsPRST
PRSTW 63-61
−21.5
31
@ECU
ECUW 79-70
+3.5
4
vsFAU
FAUW 69-66
−23.5
10
@UTSA
UTSAW 85-52
−10.5
14
vsUAB
UABL 69-82
−2.5
18
vsUNT
UNTL 63-71
−3.5
21
@FAU
FAUL 74-79
−2.5
23
@CLT
CLTL 70-73
−0.5
over 7under 12avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Florida
12-7 overall · 5-2 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs FAU89–75
- W@ UAB82–69
- Lvs Wichita St85–86
- Wvs East Carolina82–71
- W@ Tulsa93–78
3 days since their last game.
Tulane
11-8 overall · 3-4 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Charlotte70–73
- L@ FAU74–79
- Lvs North Texas63–71
- Lvs UAB69–82
- W@ UTSA85–52
5 days since their last game.