Alcorn State Braves at Alabama State Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 12, 7:00 PM ETDunn-Oliver Acadome · at Alabama St · Conference game

#360ALCNAlcorn St66final

Final

#302ALSTAlabama St81▲ winner

Closing lineALST -9.5✓ ALST covered by 5.5

Closing total151.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Alabama St
ALCN	This season	ALST
2-12	Record	3-12
7-7	ATS	6-9
9-5	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 73–81 ALST · ✓ ALST (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	32	34	66
ALST	38	43	81

1st half: ALCN 32, ALST 38 (ALST by 6). The model had ALST by 4.4 and a total of 71.9 (actual 70).

Team stats

ALCN		ALST
23-61 38%	Field goals	26-50 52%
8-26 31%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
12-16 75%	Free throws	21-26 81%
28 10 off	Rebounds	36 8 off
11	Assists	12
9	Steals	9
2	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	16
18	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	36
11	Fast-break points	31

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shane Lancaster G	34	15	6	3	6-12	3-8
Jameel Morris G	33	10	2	4	3-9	1-3
Davian Williams PG	28	2	4	2	1-8	0-4
Nick Woodard SF	26	8	3	0	2-6	1-2
Tycen McDaniels F	25	14	8	0	6-10	0-1
Bench
Omari Hamilton F	24	7	3	0	2-5	0-0
Travis Roberts SG	19	10	0	0	3-9	3-7
Bryson Calamese PG	9	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Jeremy Ellis PF	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Alex Hawkins, Mike Jones, William Henderson, Ray Glasgow

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Asjon Anderson G	34	23	0	3	5-10	3-4
Micah Simpson G	30	15	6	2	6-11	1-4
Jerquarius Stanback F	18	7	4	2	2-2	0-0
Cameron Palesse G	12	2	2	1	1-3	0-1
Tyler Mason F	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Damarien Yates F	27	6	6	1	2-3	1-2
Tyler Mack G	21	8	5	1	2-8	2-7
Tyler Byrd G	20	6	2	1	3-8	0-2
JaSteven Walker F	15	7	1	0	2-2	1-1
R'Chaun King F	11	5	5	1	2-2	0-0
Mario Andrews C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Damion Cox Jr., Kevin Alabi, Jordon Marshall, Damarion Bonds, Trey Miller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ALST -9.5	ALST -7.6	ALCN +1.9	L ALST covered
Total	151.5	153.5	Over 2.0	L Under
Projected score	—	ALCN 73 · ALST 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALST -4.4	ALST -6.0
1H total	71.9	70
1H projected score	ALCN 33.7 · ALST 38.1	ALCN 32 · ALST 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LLLWW	7-7	50%	6-7	7-7
ALST LLWLL	6-9	40%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; ALST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OOUOU	9-5	64%	2-12
ALST OUOOU	7-8	47%	3-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ALST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALCN 3–1 ALSTALCN leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · ALCN 4-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 13, 2024-25	ALST 65 @ ALCN 67	ALCN +3.5	ALCN W
Jan 13, 2023-24	ALCN 53 @ ALST 55	ALST -4	ALCN W
Jan 9, 2022-23	ALST 76 @ ALCN 92	ALCN -7.5	ALCN W
Jan 10, 2021-22	ALCN 70 @ ALST 60	ALST +1.5	ALCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

14 games played

Straight up

2-12

14% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1214%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-750%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-564%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

over 9under 5avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama St

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-847%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsJKST	L 64-75	-7.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

JKST

L 64-75

−18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

JKST

L 64-75

−14.5

over 7under 8avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn St @ Alabama St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Alabama St

Alcorn St

Alabama St