Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -22.5✓ PSU covered by 14.5
PUR -22.5✓ PSU covered by 14.5Closing total152.5Over by 25.5
 PSU | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | Record | 14-1 |
| 6-9 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 7-8 | O/U | 5-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PSU 66–87 PUR · ✓ PUR (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 44 | 41 | 85 |
| PUR | 45 | 48 | 93 |
1st half: PSU 44, PUR 45 (PUR by 1). The model had PUR by 12.8 and a total of 71.5 (actual 89).
Team stats
| PSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-56 57% | Field goals | 38-66 58% |
| 12-27 44% | 3-pointers | 11-29 38% |
| 9-10 90% | Free throws | 6-14 43% |
| 28 5 off | Rebounds | 27 8 off |
| 16 | Assists | 25 |
| 2 | Steals | 7 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Dilione V G | 34 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 10-20 | 3-8 |
| Ivan Juric F | 31 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Josh Reed F | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Eli Rice G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Melih Tunca G | 25 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Kayden Mingo, Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Tibor Mirtic, Chris Lotito
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 39 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 11-18 | 4-8 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 32 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 30 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 10-11 | 0-0 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 27 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 26 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gicarri Harris G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jack Benter G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Omer Mayer G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Liam Murphy, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -22.5
ModelPUR -21.6
Model edgePSU +0.9
W PSU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model152.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
W Over
Projected score
PSU 65.6 · PUR 87.2
PSU 85 · PUR 93
Win probability
PUR 97%
1st half
Spread
PUR -12.8
PUR -1.0
Total
71.5
89 points
Projected score
PSU 29.4 · PUR 42.1
PSU 44 · PUR 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -22.5
no move
ClosePUR -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open151.5
▲ 1
Close152.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
PSU +2000 · PUR -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -22.5 · unchangedmodel PUR -21.5
model PUR -21.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 1 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| PUR | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
PSU 1–6 PURPUR leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · PSU 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | PUR 70 @ PSU 81 | PSU -2.5 | PSU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | PSU 78 @ PUR 95 | PUR -18.5 | PSU W |
| Mar 12, 2022-23 | PSU 65 vs PUR 67 | PUR -7.5 | PSU W |
| Feb 1, 2022-23 | PSU 60 @ PUR 80 | PUR -9.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 8, 2022-23 | PUR 76 @ PSU 63 | PSU +5.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn State
15 games played
Straight up
9-6
60% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vs MSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 29 | vs NCCU | W 90-67 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | vs ILL | L 65-73 | +14.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vs MICH | L 72-74 | +24.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
−0.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
+6.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
+22.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
+6.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
−18.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
−23.5
over 7under 8avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
15 games played
Straight up
14-1
93% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-10
33% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
over 5under 10avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn State
9-6 overall · 0-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan72–74
- Lvs Illinois65–73
- Wvs NC Central90–67
- Lvs Pitt46–80
- Lvs Michigan St72–76
4 days since their last game.
Purdue
14-1 overall · 4-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Washington81–73
- W@ Wisconsin89–73
- Wvs Kent State101–60
- Wvs Auburn88–60
- Wvs Marquette79–59
3 days since their last game.