Fiserv Forum · at Marquette · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -9.5✓ MARQ covered by 15.5
CONN -9.5✓ MARQ covered by 15.5Closing total143.5Under by 13.5
| CONN | This season | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| 27-3 | Record | 11-19 |
| 10-20 | ATS | 12-18 |
| 16-14 | O/U | 14-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 77–68 MARQ · ✗ CONN (80%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 35 | 27 | 62 |
| MARQ | 33 | 35 | 68 |
1st half: CONN 35, MARQ 33 (CONN by 2). The model had CONN by 6.0 and a total of 67.8 (actual 68).
Team stats
| CONN | MARQ | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-59 36% | Field goals | 23-48 48% |
| 3-24 13% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 17-18 94% | Free throws | 14-23 61% |
| 40 16 off | Rebounds | 25 5 off |
| 16 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 40 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-5 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 38 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 33 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-15 | 1-10 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 29 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Solo Ball G | 25 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-10 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 22 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Malachi Smith G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Uros Paunovic, Rrezon Elezaj, Jacob Furphy, Alec Millender, Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma, Jaylin Stewart
| MARQ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Ross G | 38 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Royce Parham F | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Adrien Stevens G | 35 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Nigel James Jr. G | 33 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 7-19 | 1-7 |
| Ben Gold F | 15 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caedin Hamilton F | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Damarius Owens SF | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Tre Norman G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Phillips II SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jonah Lucas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Casey O'Malley G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ian Miletic, Sheek Pearson, Nash Walker, Braeden Brenn, Joshua Clark, Sean Jones
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCONN -9.5
ModelCONN -9.8
Model edgeCONN +0.3
L MARQ covered
Total
Market143.5
Model144.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
L Under
Projected score
CONN 77.4 · MARQ 67.6
CONN 62 · MARQ 68
Win probability
CONN 80%
1st half
Spread
CONN -6.0
CONN -2.0
Total
67.8
68 points
Projected score
CONN 36.9 · MARQ 30.9
CONN 35 · MARQ 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -9.5
no move
CloseCONN -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
no move
Close143.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CONN -550 · MARQ +410
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -9.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -10
model CONN -10
Opened 143.5 · unchangedmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| MARQ | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
CONN 9–2 MARQCONN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 6 meetings · CONN 8-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025-26 | MARQ 57 @ CONN 73 | CONN -17.5 | MARQ W |
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | MARQ 66 @ CONN 72 | CONN -3.5 | CONN W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | CONN 77 @ MARQ 69 | MARQ -6.5 | CONN W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | MARQ 57 vs CONN 73 | CONN -10 | CONN W |
| Mar 6, 2023-24 | CONN 74 @ MARQ 67 | MARQ +6 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
30 games played
Straight up
27-3
90% wins
Against the spread
10-20
33% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-14
53% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vsMARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 21 | @VILL | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsSJU | W 72-40 | -5.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 28 | vsHALL | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
+6.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
+26.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
−8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 20avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
−5.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
−33.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
+7.5
over 16under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Marquette
30 games played
Straight up
11-19
37% wins
Against the spread
12-18
40% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-16
47% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UALB | W 80-53 | -24.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 5 | vs SOU | W 100-82 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 9 | vs IU | L 77-100 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs LR | W 89-49 | -21.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | vs MD | L 82-89 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs DAY | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs CMU | W 85-71 | -25.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 28 | vs OU | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs VAL | W 75-72 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 6 | @ WIS | L 76-96 | +11.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ PUR | L 59-79 | +16.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vsGTWN | L 69-78 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 20 | @CREI | L 63-84 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 30 | vsHALL | L 73-79 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 4 | @CONN | L 57-73 | +17.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | vsXAV | W 66-65 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vsVILL | L 73-76 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @SJU | L 68-92 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 16 | @DEP | L 75-80 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 19 | vsPROV | W 105-104 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 23 | @BTLR | L 76-87 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 27 | vsCREI | W 86-62 | +1.5 | W +25.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 31 | @HALL | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 7 | vsBTLR | W 70-55 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 10 | @VILL | L 74-77 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 14 | @XAV | L 88-96 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 18 | vsSJU | L 70-76 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 24 | @GTWN | W 76-60 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 1 | vsDEP | L 51-62 | -4.5 | L −15.5 | 139.5 | U 113 |
| Mar 4 | @PROV | W 78-56 | +3.5 | W +25.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
+2.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
−6.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
−19.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
+18.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
−15.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−12.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
−11.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
+0.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
−14.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
−8.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−3.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−15.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−14.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
−7.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
+1.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−4.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+0.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
−8.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
−2.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
−1.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
−5.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
+25.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
+1.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
+11.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 88-96
−6.5
18
vsSJU
SJUL 70-76
+2.5
24
@GTWN
GTWNW 76-60
+18.5
1
vsDEP
DEPL 51-62
−15.5
4
@PROV
PROVW 78-56
+25.5
covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
−16.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
+26.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
+20.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
−17.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
+24.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−3.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
+3.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
−13.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
+0.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
+11.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−16.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−2.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−4.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
+6.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
−14.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−26.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+2.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
+4.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
+9.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
+41.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
+1.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
−6.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
−10.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
−30.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 88-96
+26.5
18
vsSJU
SJUL 70-76
−11.5
24
@GTWN
GTWNW 76-60
−14.5
1
vsDEP
DEPL 51-62
−26.5
4
@PROV
PROVW 78-56
−27.5
over 14under 16avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
27-3 overall · 17-2 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Seton Hall71–67
- Wvs St John's72–40
- W@ Villanova73–63
- Lvs Creighton84–91
- Wvs Georgetown79–75
A week or more of rest.
Marquette
11-19 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Providence78–56
- Lvs DePaul51–62
- W@ Georgetown76–60
- Lvs St John's70–76
- L@ Xavier88–96
3 days since their last game.