Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -8.5✓ FSU covered by 5.5
UVA -8.5✓ FSU covered by 5.5Closing total155.5Under by 36.5
| UVA | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-3 | Record | 11-12 |
| 13-10 | ATS | 13-10 |
| 9-14 | O/U | 10-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 82–76 FSU · ✓ UVA (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 32 | 29 | 61 |
| FSU | 32 | 26 | 58 |
1st half: UVA 32, FSU 32 (tied). The model had UVA by 3.8 and a total of 73.8 (actual 64).
Team stats
| UVA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-61 38% | Field goals | 18-62 29% |
| 10-33 30% | 3-pointers | 6-33 18% |
| 5-8 63% | Free throws | 16-22 73% |
| 47 12 off | Rebounds | 37 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 8 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 30 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Malik Thomas G | 19 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 27 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 24 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jacari White G | 21 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 7-11 | 5-9 |
| Devin Tillis F | 14 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Martin Carrere G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Owen Odom, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Carter Lang
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones G | 34 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 6-15 | 4-9 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Robert McCray V G | 29 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 6-16 | 2-6 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Alex Steen F | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 24 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-7 | 0-5 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 20 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| AJ Swinton F | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-6 |
Did not play: Alier Maluk, Xavier Osceola, Jasen Lopez, Cam Miles, Max Garcia-Plata, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -8.5
ModelUVA -6.2
Model edgeFSU +2.3
W FSU covered
Total
Market155.5
Model157.8
Model edgeOver 2.3
L Under
Projected score
UVA 82 · FSU 75.8
UVA 61 · FSU 58
Win probability
UVA 70%
1st half
Spread
UVA -3.8
tied
Total
73.8
64 points
Projected score
UVA 38.8 · FSU 35
UVA 32 · FSU 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -7.5
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -8.5
1 pt toward UVA
Total
Open151.5
▲ 4
Close155.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UVA -375 · FSU +295
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -7.5 · closed UVA -8.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -6
model UVA -6
Opened 151.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 4 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| FSU | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UVA 4–1 FSUUVA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UVA has won the last 4 meetings · UVA 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | FSU 57 @ UVA 60 | UVA -4.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | UVA 80 @ FSU 76 | FSU +1.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | UVA 67 @ FSU 58 | FSU +9.5 | FSU W |
| Dec 3, 2022-23 | FSU 57 @ UVA 62 | UVA -17.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 26, 2021-22 | FSU 64 @ UVA 63 | UVA -9 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
23 games played
Straight up
20-3
87% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-14
39% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vs PITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vs SYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
over 9under 14avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-13
43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsNCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @ MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsCAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vsSTAN | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 7 | @ND | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+4.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+4.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+15.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+6.5
over 10under 13avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
20-3 overall · 9-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse72–59
- Wvs Pitt67–47
- W@ Boston College73–66
- W@ Notre Dame100–97
- Lvs North Carolina80–85
3 days since their last game.
Florida St
11-12 overall · 4-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Notre Dame82–79
- Wvs Stanford88–80
- Wvs California63–61
- L@ SMU80–83
- W@ Miami65–63
3 days since their last game.